Sometimes when you are looking who to bet on in a football match you quickly come to an opinion without carefully thinking about whether the odds available offer value.
For example many might decide to bet on Man Utd to beat Cardiff at odds of 1.3 (1/3) but not know what percentage chance the odds equate too. If you then ask them how many times they think Man Utd win this match out of ten they might say 7 and not realise that the 1.3 is then not a value selection to them. This is because 1.3 equates to a percentage chance of 76.9% and if Man Utd were to win 7 times out of 10 you would lose money backing this selection.
I therefore came up with a spreadsheet that solves this problem. It lets you input your percentage estimations and then the odds available to tell you which outcome offers the most value based on your estimates. The spreadsheet uses the Kelly criterion to determine which bet offers the most value and it also shows what your profit loss returns would be had you used the Kelly stakes.
If your Kelly stakes profit/loss is better than that of the level stake profit/loss this means your % estimations are very accurate and you may want to consider using the Kelly stakes themselves. It also keeps track of your profit loss and shows you month by month totals. It’s amazing how often you think you know which team you want to bet on but when you actually put the % estimates into the spreadsheet that the value really lies elsewhere.
Give it a try yourself and download the Value Finder Spreadsheet for free below.
If you need any help or have any questions about the spreadsheet you can find post a message on the forum.