*UPDATE – This will be the last value bets preview and anyone wishing to follow my progress can see my estimates and results to date by viewing the spread sheet which will continue to be updated daily around mid-day.
Making a profit on the World Cup is proving more difficult than I thought but it’s still early days. It looked like Ecuador would set the tome for a profitable day after going 1-0 up against Switzerland only for The Swiss to not only equalise but steal a late winner. Argentina just about did the business but it wasn’t much consolation at such a short price.
There’s been an incredible amount of goals in the tournament so far and this is most unusual for a world cup and it’ll be interesting to see whether this trend continues. 11 matches in and we’re yet to have our first draw!
It’s hard to envisage a much worse start with only 3 winners from the first 11 (sheet here) but this game is all about patience and keep backing what you think is value and hopefully the winners will take care of themselves. I’ve had bad spells in the premier league and always come out on top eventually.
The first two matches tonight look fairly predictable and I expect both Nigeria (v Iran) and Germany (v Portugal) to get 3 points tonight. Nigeria’s price has now shortened somewhat and the value is only marginal though in my opinion.
Germany are a better shout at over even money and I say they’d win this match about 6 times out of ten. Portugal do of course have Ronaldo and they counter attack well but I expect the organisation of the Germans to prevail against this type of opposition.
The late kick off, Ghana v USA is a little more difficult to judge. I do make Ghana slight favourites but based on the odds available USA look the value pick. They qualified with ease and went on a 12 game winning streak under Klinsmann and although Ghana have beaten the USA in the previous 2 world cups, I think there’s a decent chance of a USA victory.
Value Bets:
Germany to beat Portugal at 2.1 with Bet365
Nigeria to beat Iran at 1.91 with Bet365
USA to beat Ghana at 3.2 with Coral