So the world cup is here and it’s like Christmas for all of us footy fans. As I mentioned recently I’m going to deploy the same method of pricing up world cup games as I do with the value premier league selections. These have been profitable for both of the 2 seasons that I have used this method and I’m hoping the world cup will be no different! I’ll be posting the selections on here but here is a direct link to the spreadsheet for you to follow or even have a go yourself.
At the current prices it’s very hard to argue that Brazil are value. 1.31 is about as low as it gets in the world cup especially against a decent side in Croatia. New contributor and tipster at Betting Tools, Zed Dav is correct in that if you make use of the offer with Bwin who will give you your money back if brazil fail to win, then Brazil are the bet.
If you’re not utilising the Bwin offer though and you want betting value then you have to be looking at the draw or even the Croatia win. Both of these prices are too high particularly the draw at nearly 5/1 when 7 out of the 14 official opening matches have resulted in a draw as Cassini mentioned in his World Cup Analysis piece over at Betting Expert.
We all like to think that the world cup is where we see ridiculous amounts of goals but this just isn’t the case, even with Brazil. A lot of matches will feature under 2.5 goals, 11 of the 14 openers have in fact and so perhaps even this one. I would say this kind of match up in a world cup opener would finish in a draw in about 1 out of 4 occasions (25%) and according to the spreadsheet that makes the draw is the value pick for me.
Best Value – Brazil v Croatia – Draw at 5.75 with Matchbook