Why selections are almost irrelevant

Last month’s tipster table tipster tipsters recorded a profit of 718.40 but it’s not so much the selections that the tipsters tipped but the prices that were achieved that were crucial. This may sound obvious to most but I don’t think many people fully appreciate just how significant the odds are when following a tipster. Well known tipsters like Pricewise and Hugh Taylor do indeed show very impressive long-term records to their advised stakes but how easy is it to achieve them? Not very, I’m sure most would agree but “I’m able to get very close, say a point or so off” I hear you say and considering the large overall profits they make, this is enough, right? Wrong.

Take just half a point off the odds of the tips listed on the board for May and that 718.40 profit is wiped out. Not only that you’re looking at a loss of 312.00. Take off a full point and so, back 10/1 tips at 9/1 on average and your losses are -1484.00! This is an astronomical difference I’m sure you’ll agree. Luckily, tipsters on our site aren’t high-profile and most of the odds listed are available for a decent amount of time for followers to achieve the listed price. For the likes of Pricewise and Hugh Taylor this is much more problematic.

When you start thinking of your bets in terms of achieving as high a price as possible then you are starting to make progress towards a professional approach. What actually wins is almost irrelevant and you become almost unaffected by winners and losers. For many this takes the excitement away. The feeling of being right and knowing that something would win or run well is part of the appeal. If you are looking to make as big a success as possible with your betting however, then you need to start thinking more in terms of odds than selections.

It’s great when we tip up an outsider or a very nice priced winner but these will always occur. We seem to feel that tipsters who manage to tip a winner of upwards of 2/1 on the tennis for example are geniuses but those winners are always going to occur. What happens on one particular day is of very little significance. The only thing that’s worth evaluating is if the winners that are being achieved are at prices that show an overall profit in the long-term. The truth is that in sports like tennis, with 2 outcomes and the odds varying very little prior to the start of the match, that even if you can beat the market, the returns are going to be very small.

With the competition between bookies giving us close to 100% overrounds as ever before, best odds guaranteed, best odds guaranteed boosted and being able to set your own odds on the exchange, it’s not too difficult to make a profit on the horses.

The odds change so much in the 24 hours of being put up to race start time, that you can bet the same selections at such a range of different prices that it’s possible to show a massive profit and a massive loss for the very same selections.

The more you try to select winners or feel that you have to be certain about the performance of a selection, the less profit you are likely to make overall. The more you try to focus on finding the winner, the more you’re likely to overestimate its chances. Successful people in nearly all walks of life tend to have more losers than winners and betting is no different.

There will of course be those that claim they only bet when they’re certain and bet big once a week or whatever. Even if you are THAT good you’ll probably not have enough money to make the ROI on those few selections worthwhile and even if you do, you probably wouldn’t be comfortable risking it. The small number of bets will make you highly susceptible to pure bad luck (think David Haye injury against Bellew) and when the inevitable does happen you’ll be looking too hard to find the next ‘cert’.

Start playing percentages and think about what odds ranges in which types of races, with how many runners are likely to give you a best chance of a profit. Add in the best time to bet (HINT: early), make sure you get top market price and without even an ounce of racing expertise you’ll have a strong chance of showing a long-term profit.