What to expect from betting

Tipwise has predictably been the star performer in the early part of 2018 with some ridiculously impressive totals and although January was a good month for most, February was much trickier.  A combined loss of over 500 units was recorded, the worst for a long time, though in fact, only the 2nd losing month in the last 21 months (based on tipsters who are still active). The overall returns that the site has genrated for each of the last 21 months has been updated on the subscriptions page.

A losing month after backing a lot of tips can be enough for people to give up or look at changing/tweaking their strategy. If you’re already doubtful that you can make a profit long-term then it’s all to easy to use a poor spell as self-fulfilling proof that making money regularly from betting can’t be done. This is not necessarily the case though and whilst bettors should be weary of being too hasty to trust profitable tipsters/systems, it’s also important not to be too hasty writing them off either.

I’ve written before that what tends to happen is people see excellent results and decide to start following a tipster, only to give up after a losing spell, after which he fires off a number of big winners.

If you’re staking sensibly then any bet that you’re confident of achieving value in is a good bet and you should keep going until you get as near to conclusive proof as you can that you’re not getting value anymore.

Just how do you do this? Well, you make sure you are beating the starting price more often than not and you evaluate your set of results to see if they are still typical of a profitable system. Those who are mathematically capable might use something like the monte carlo method to evaluate their results. For those of you who aren’t though this article on how often professional bettors get paid gives you a rough idea of what to expect when betting on the horses.

What is also clear is the impact of the higher variance when betting at longer odds. Over a relatively small sample of wagers such as this, luck will play a much bigger role at longer prices. Even with a healthy advantage we can still expect to lose money in a significant number of months.

At odds of 10, the probability of a making a loss is about 27%, with an expected return of 120%. That’s hardly much of an improvement on betting those odds when we hold no advantage at all (43%). By contrast, our monthly expectations when betting short odds of 1.5 are much more influenced by the size of the advantage we hold and much less so by chance.

The article demonstrates that even when betting at value prices of 10/1  and expecting a return of 120% from 50 bets you are still likely to have a losing month at least every 1 in 4. Increasing the amount of bets you make helps matters and makes a losing month less likely to be as regular but you have to ensure you maintain your edge. Something that isn’t always easy.

Whilst betting solely on one high performing tipster is great, if you are able to include a couple more tipsters who are clearly finding value, the increased amount of bets makes a losing month less likely.

Being able to place all the extra bets at advised prices, being sure you’re maintaining your edge and being able to afford the extra tips at your usual stake are all considerations though. Like most things in life, it’s about striking the right balance for you.