As requested by a number of readers I’ve decided to bring the premier league value bets back. I had been continuing to price the prem games up but didn’t think there was enough interest to post them on the blog. They have been very profitable for the 2 full seasons that I’ve done them in 2010/11 and 2013/14.
I say full seasons but I previously didn’t start until a few weeks into the season to give myself a feel for the teams. There are always a lot of changes in pre-season and it’s difficult to make any early assumptions. This season however, I decided to start from the first week after seeing a fair few shock results early on in previous seasons. Based on my pricing methods and its usual favour for outsiders I feel that this could work to my advantage.
Two weeks in the sheet is showing a small loss but I’ve been very close to some big winners. I was on the draw in both the Liverpool v Southampton and V Arsenal matches which both saw very late winners for the favourites. If either of these had landed I’d be showing a profit. If David Nugent could score one on ones I also may have been looking at a significant profit. Goals change games and who knows what might have happened with my bet on Leicester who were the better side in the first half against Chelsea.
I’ve been asked how I decide on the percentages and I simply and ask myself how many times out of 100 each of the three outcomes would occur based on my knowledge. I watch match of the day (loved last week’s retro look and legendary Barry Davies commentary for the Crystal Place/West Ham match by the way), the occasional live game on the weekend or Monday and I look at the stats provided by websites like football data. I try and make my estimations as unbiased as possible and try not to look at the odds beforehand.
The season has started off pretty decently in terms of entertainment. With players like Suarez gone it was feared by many that there weren’t enough exciting players to watch this season but I’ve enjoyed the opening couple of weeks. We’ll soon have the likes of Balotelli and Di Maria to enjoy too who will both provide entertainment though probably for different reasons.
So far there doesn’t seem to be too much change in the strength of the top teams. City already look like they’re going to continue their dominance, while Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea again look strong and everyone is still laughing at United! I thought sure that I wouldn’t recognise any of their team sheet when I heard about their 4-0 cup defeat top MK Dons but there were in fact a number of familiar and supposedly international standard names. Chelsea are the team who look most improved out of the big boys and if anyone can pip City to the title this season it’s Mourinho’s men.
The promoted teams, Burnley, Leicester and QPR don’t appear to be any worse than any of the other lower ranked teams. Out of the three though I’d be more concerned if I were a QPR fan as they still seem to think that overpaid hasbeens are their ticket to safety.
Generally, I’m happy (I’m not always) with the best my percentage predictions have come out with this week. I honestly can’t see any win for Stoke at the Etihad but 21-1 is a ridiculous price for almost any premier league match and has to be taken.
According to the sheet West Ham are the bet of the weekend and I think 2.9 is definitely a very generous price for the home side. The hammers played excellently away at Palace last week and Argentinian Mauro Zarate looks a great signing. They are still without Kevin nolan but the team is playing with a lot more confident than it did for most of last season.
Southampton played well against Liverpool in week 1 but went home pointless and were involved in a lacklustre performance at home to West Brom and I think the Hammers can get a narrow victory in this one.
Best Value Bet
West Ham to beat Southampton at 2.9 (William Hill)