1.45 KEMPTON TOTESCOOP6 SEPTEMBER STAKES (Group 3)
05 SEPTEMBER 2015
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) (1M 4F)
Just the six go to post for Channel 4’s opening race this Saturday, a surprisingly low turnout considering the healthy prize money on offer. Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor have won this the last two years, but he has no representative this time around. The boys in blue will instead look to complete the hat trick with the John Gosden trained Jack Hobbs. He will go off a short price, and will look to become just the second jolly to oblige since 2006.
ARAB DAWN-(MORRISON/TURNER)
Second lowest rated in the field at 103, and this 4yo grey looks up against it stepped into pattern company for the first time. Was beaten out of sight behind Litigant in The Ebor, and will have to produce much better form to get involved here.
He has won here before though, which is a positive, and he has a decent draw too. However, there are other horses in the field that look much better treated by the conditions of the race, and the best Arab Dawn can hope for is minor money. He can be backed at odds of 16/1.
AUSSIE REIGNS (KNIGHT/TYLICKI)
Rated 1lb higher than Arab Dawn at 104, and also comes here on the back of a poor effort when well beaten in a Group 2 at Goodwood. This 5yo gelding wasn’t beaten too far in Listed and Group 3 races on his previous two runs though, and a repeat of those two efforts would see him pushing for a top 3 finish.
Also is a previous course and distance winner, at Listed level back in 2013,so his ability to handle the track is not in question. He needs to bounce back from that uninspiring Goodwood run, but if he does he might well sneak third and he can be backed at odds of 25/1.
FIRE FIGHTING (JOHNSTON/NORTON)
Typically hardy Mark Johnston 4yo who was in great form earlier this year, but who has lost his way in recent weeks. Poor at this level on his last two runs, and though he is rated 110 he hasn’t been running like he deserves that mark.
He has yet to taste success on an artificial surface after nine attempts, and it is difficult to see that changing in this contest. Has run well here before though, so the track is not a massive worry. His current form is though, and he is overlooked at odds of 10/1 until showing signs of a return to form.
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME (BECKETT/QUEALLY)
This 6yo gelding has been running well in the main this season, but blotted his copybook with a below average run behind Big Orange at Newmarket in a Group 2 last time. He is rated 108, and he went very close on his last two tries at Group 3 level this year.
He has won around here before, so the surface holds no fears for him, and his last two efforts over 10f suggested that 12f is what he wants nowadays. He is available at odds of 12/1, and he can be the one to give the favourite most to think about back at a track he loves.
JACK HOBBS (GOSDEN/BUICK)
Classy 3yo chased Golden Horn home at Epsom, and then followed up himself in the Irish Derby at the Curragh. After the aforementioned Golden Horn got turned over at similarly skinny odds a couple of weeks back, punters will be wary about steaming in on this one.
It is difficult to see the same outcome though, as Jack Hobbs looks to be head and shoulders above the rest of his opponents. He can be backed at 2/7 and he is difficult to oppose. It will be a big shock if he gets beat and I can’t see it happening.
MUTATIS MUTANDIS (WALKER/FRESU)
This 4yo filly has got her head in front twice this season, the second win a Listed contest at Windsor over 11.5f. Stepped into Group 1 company on her next run, and was far from disgraced behind Diamondsandrubies. Her last run was poor but perhaps the easy ground was at fault on that occasion.
If she can recapture the form of her penultimate effort she could well put up a good show. The surface is an unknown as she has yet to race on anything other than turf. There are too many question marks to be confident about her chances in this event, and at 16/1 she is best watched.
SWEEPING UP (MORRISON/COSGRAVE)
4yo filly who won her maiden here, and has also won a handicap off 80 this season. She was stepped into Group 3 company on her next run, and was found wanting behind Simple Verse. It was a similar story on her last run, back in a handicap, as she struggled to land a blow off 90, though perhaps the easy ground didn’t suit her upped in trip.
The return to 12f today should help her, as should the return to Kempton. However, she is the lowest rated in the field by some distance and she will need to find heaps of improvement from somewhere. Can be backed at 50/1 and that is an accurate reflection of her chances.
CONCLUSION
I am usually never one for tipping up odds on favourites, but on some occasions it is simply unavoidable. Jack Hobbs drops down a couple of grades in this race, and while it is clearly a warm up for bigger days ahead, he will still only need to be operating at 75% to come out on top.
Of the remainder Niceofyoutotellme looks most interesting, and perhaps he can be the one for the forecast. Aussie Reigns and Arab Dawn both have course form, and can fight it out for the minor money.
STEVOS’ SELECTIONS:
Jack Hobbs
Niceofyoutotellme
Aussie Reigns