Whilst I have been trying to make sure my bets have been giving a good ROI and have generated some very impressive results by being pretty selective, I am now starting to appreciate fully the power of turnover. I was aware that the more opportunities you found with value the better but not just how much this can have an effect and as you make more bets the less keeping your ROI matters.
Cassini at GreenAllOver has just discovered that he can make more profit on his XX draw selections by extending the selection criteria to find more qualifying bets, despite a decrease in the ROI figure. He says,
I spent last night in the cells (ok, those of my Excel spreadsheet – someone on Twitter suggested it would make me sound edgy), looking at tweaking the XX Draw Selections to generate more picks, albeit at a lower ROI. The current, let’s call it the ‘Classic’, version has in close to three seasons generated 334 selections, with an estimated profit of 54.05 points, an ROI = 16.18%, while the ‘Expanded’ option under consideration would have generated 1,108 selections for an estimated profit of 125.7 points, and an ROI of 11.35%.
A higher turnover doesn’t always make for more profit but a significant increase in turnover e.g. double will usually mean more profit even with a 5% or so decrease. It’s best to do the maths just as Cassini has done to make sure you know what to expect. For me it may mean generating value selections on the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 to increase my turnover. At present I don’t know whether I have enough information about these leagues to profit so I would need to trial this first.A higher turnover doesn’t always make for more profit but a significant increase in turnover e.g. double will usually mean more profit even with a 5% or so decrease. It’s best to do the maths just as Cassini has done to make sure you know what to expect. For me it may mean generating value selections on the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 to increase my turnover. At present I don’t know whether I have enough information about these leagues to profit so I would need to trial this first.
Increasing turnover doesn’t mean to say you should go out and bet on every favourite, every underdog or even every bet you think wins. You should take on any bet that you think has a better chance of winning than the odds on offer suggest. To do this it is very helpful to do the simple calculation:
100 / Odds on Offer = Percentage Chance of Winning
If you believe the selection has a better chance of winning then you should place a bet. Without doing this you can’t expect to be accurate because I don’t know anyone who knows the exact percentage possibility probability of every particular odds range off the top of their head. You should take on any bet that has a positive expectation to the odds on offer (commission accounting too of course). So if a bet is 1.3, this means the market thinks it wins 77% of the time and if you think it wins 78 times out of 100 then you take that bet! Of course you have to think theoretically and imagine this event was played out 100 times with exactly the same conditions and factors involved.
Remember however that most of the time each bookmakers book adds up to 98% at best and so it’s hard to find value over an increased amount of markets but by at least taking the best price on offer you give yourself a better chance of finding it or at least betting at the correct price as the best prices on offer per market across bookies usually add up to 100%.
Plenty of talking points from the weekends Sport. A goal that never was in the FA cup and a close finish in the Grand National with 2 horses dying. Profit wise it was uneventful overall as I made money on Chelsea qualifying and got my money back in the national but had a couple of bets that lost on the tennis. I have to admit that I didn’t enjoy watching the National this year as it looked like there were going to be bad falls at every fence. Maybe this is me getting sensitive in my old age but I do think they need to make the fences smaller and perhaps have less runners but you have to accept that horses will always die in racing with or without fences or less runners and that’s part and parcel of the sport and life in general.