What a disaster last week!! All 10 of the value bets lost. We’re not one of those sites that gloss over losers and only promote the winners so it’s important to look at whether this was a bad spell of variance or whether I called any wrong. In 3 seasons of using this method to find value bets I don’t recall losing all 10 in any one week before. If it has happened it is very rare.
I always look back as honestly as possible whether it be a winning or losing week and see whether I agreed on the value. It can be difficult after the event but it is possible I think. I’m not too unhappy with most of them to tell you the truth. A lot of favourites delivered which will often happen but a few of the prices were too short. Chelsea and Man City are the only teams I’d consider backing at around 1.3 but certainly no lower than that and Chelsea for example were a best price of 1.25.
The bets that do stand out to me though are those of the newly promoted teams. I think I am guilty of giving them a little too much credit. After a few decent performances early on I decided they would be competitive in this league and now I’m not so sure. Shock results are happening though but I seem to be missing out on them and the draws too.
So, closer attention to the newly promoted teams is required but I’m still largely happy with my selections. Luckily 2 of them are playing each other this week and I’m in no doubt that the value lies with Burnley at over 4/1 in that one. Even if Leicester do manage to win I think even money is a fair price but not odds on (Currently 1.87).