Last week saw the introduction of my value finder spreadsheet that can be used to create value in an unbiased fashion by entering your percentage estimates for the 3 outcomes and the odds and letting the spreadsheet do the maths! It’s a method I used before for over half a season in 2012 when I managed a return of 23.20% and hope for similar results this time around.
A profit was obtained last week albeit a small one of 4.2% and it could have easily been much better. This is using level stakes and it was a loss using Kelly stakes but my estimates have always performed better to level stakes and so I shall be sticking with these for my bets. I guess that means I’m good at knowing where the values lies but not quite as good at quantifying the edge.
This week the sheet has advised 3 draws on the Liverpool v Southampton, West Ham v Everton and Chelsea v Fulham matches. All 3 of the favourites in these fixtures are struggling to score freely right now and I’m particularly happy to back the draw at 3-1 and nearly 5-1 in the case of Chelsea. Mourinho’s Chelsea look a bit of a mess and the aging Eto is yet to score in his first 2 matches despite him being given the nod ahead of Torres. Liverpool are over reliant on Sturridge and have now lost creative Coutinho for 6 weeks. They seem a bit lightweight up top having created very few scoring chances in their matches so far. Everton are in a similar predicament and have had 2 0-0 draws in their first 4 matches already.
Aston Villa are unpredictable and seem to do well away from home but Norwich are in good form and their price looks too big with home advantage. Benteke is proving hard to keep out but Villa’s open style still leaves them vulnerable at the back. Sunderland have had a poor start but so have West Brom and my estimates see the value on the away side in this one.
On Sunday Arsenal are the league’s form team at the moment and I’d be surprised if they didn’t beat Stoke. Giroud is like a new signing and now that they’ve added Ozil to the mix things are finally looking up for the Gunners. My estimates however have slight value on the Potters though and odds of 10.5 are very big for a team in good form that have caused Arsenal problems in previous seasons. Swansea and Spurs both look like they should win their away games and I reckon a bet on both at an average of evens should see your money returned at least. Both teams played in the Europa league on Thursday but have managed to rotate very effectively, especially in the case of Spurs who rested Soldado.
Finally to the Manchester Derby on Super Sunday and I definitely see the value with United. Both had god wins in Europe and I don’t think we can read too much into this. But I feel United are the more settled of the 2 teams with new managers. Man Utd also have the bigger goal threat in Robin Van Persie and Rooney is starting to look rejuvenated too. Man City have lost to Cardiff and were outplayed by Stoke last week too and at a price of 3.6 the value has to be with last season’s Champions.
My Bet of the Weekend: Man Utd +0.5 at 1.77 with Bet Victor