*Updated spreadsheet can be found here.
I did wonder if the bookies would shorten up the prices on the big favourites this week to help ease their liabilities after a disastrous weekend for them last time out. The prices are about what I expected, perhaps a tick or 2 shorter than what I expected. I suppose they don’t need to do any more than this and let variance and the publicity of all the wins take their cause.
I don’t think there has been 3 teams under 1.3 in one weekend but a big part of that is the match ups and the form of the favourites. As I said in my last write up, I don’t hold out too much hope for shocks in these big prices and the Kelly stakes for each of these is lowest for these 3 matches but there is certainly no value backing all 3 of these teams at these prices that’s for sure.
Shock results do happen. We’ve already benefited from some big wins this season and there will be more. It might not be this week but that’s what backing value prices and being patient is all about.
My estimates have the value on all the away sides apart from Man United this weekend! Chelsea are looking a hell of lot stronger than united and with home advantage I’m happy to back the blues at 1.8 in that one. It will only take 2 or 3 away wins to see us in profit, let’s just hope we get them!
The Premier League welcomes back Aguero who made his return in the FA cup in midweek and scored after only a minute of coming on. This comment from a spoof James Milner twitter account (@BoringMilner) about the goal made me smile.
Sergio Aguero said I can’t believe I scored a minute after coming on. I said Actually it was more like 50 seconds. He said Is that so, James
— Boring James Milner (@BoringMilner) January 15, 2014
I’m aware there are a lot of these kinds of accounts but there’s some really creative people who come out with some very amusing stuff on twitter. Evil Kagawa is another clever one and this tweet from @FootyHumour this week was also a classic!
Congrats to Ashley Young for winning the FIFA Fallon d’Floor award. pic.twitter.com/AJq6kcvbMo — Footy Humour (@FootyHumour) January 13, 2014
Bet of the weekend – Newcastle to beat West Ham at 2.45 with Betfred