It was a 3rd week of profit in a row for our premier league selections. We only had 4 wins from 10 in mid-week but it’s all about price and with Everton and Aston Villa both winning at odds greater than 5-1 we were already in the green before Man City and Spurs added to the profit.
So we’re now into the green overall and the current ROI for the season is 3.86%. It shows how quickly things can change. I feel as though I‘m getting a good read on teams now and what they are capable of and luck has also started to go our way a bit too. Let’s hope it continues!
I’m not sure we learned too much from the mid-week games. We all can see that Man Utd are still way off what they need to be and how the market is pricing them and odds of 7.5 on Newcastle are huge this weekend.
The Magpies were beaten 3-0 by Swansea but the game was in the balance for a long while and they had won all their games in November. United are likely to be without Van Persie and the suspended Rooney and you’d be silly to back United at the current price of 1.55. United have now lost 3 of their 7 home matches this season.
The market agrees with my estimations on the Crystal Palace and Cardiff match so no bet on this one.
Liverpool take on West Ham at Anfield and will be full of confidence after their 5-1 drubbing of Norwich. It demonstrated how poor Norwich are and how brilliant Suarez can be individually but let’s not forget that Liverpool lost to Hull only last week. 1.3 is about right and if anything a bit short. I wouldn’t really be wanting to back West Ham what with their lack of goals and luckily I see more value on the draw at 6.0.
Man City showed they were a class above West Brom despite taking their foot off the gas in the last 10 mins. I see them continuing their great form with a win over Southampton whose form has dipped. It’s 3 defeats in a row now for Southampton.
Same story for Chelsea at Stoke I reckon and another odds on away win here. Chelsea have won their last three league games, scoring 10 goals and Eden Hazard is beginning to shine again.
Norwich were pummelled by Luis Suarez‘s Liverpool and I really thing they will continue to struggle this season. They’re conceding far too many goals, their 21 so far being the highest and I think West Brom are a much more organised side. The price isn’t as god as I hoped but I’d still prefer to be on West Brom in this one.
Sunderland are good value at 4.6 at home to Tottenham. Spurs were lucky to win at Fulham on Wednesday after a late Holtby strike from distance and Sunderland will be just as tricky an opponent. Spurs just aren’t scoring enough goals and Sunderland will feel they have a chance of nicking this one.
On to Sunday and the early kick off is Fulham v Aston Villa. Fulham’s determination and spirit seemed a lot better against Spurs a few days ago and you’d expect that after the (now real) appointment of new manager Mulensteen. Aston Villa fluked yet another away win similar to how they did at the Etihad earlier on in the season and their luck will run out sooner or later. The market can’t split these two but I am pre-empting more improvement for Fulham and they look the value bet in this one.
The Super Sunday game is Arsenal v Everton is an intriguing one and you can make a case for Everton but the Gunners have been so dominant so far this season and the current price of 1.75 is actually a touch generous. This is no doubt due to the win over United but they are no longer the benchmark they once were.
Monday night’s game is Swansea v Hull. Swansea recorded a nice 3-0 win over Newcastle in midweek but the score line flattered them really. Hull are an organised side and showed they can get results against the top sides. 5.5 is a big price on the Tigers in a match that could easily go either way,
Good luck with all your bets this weekend.
Bet of the weekend: Fulham to beat Aston Villa at 2.8 with Bet Victor