A decent round of games at the weekend with 6 out of the 10 matches going our way. The profit was pretty small however (5.9 units and 5.9% ROI) but I knew this would be the case with many of the selections favourites. We were unlucky with our 2 outside selections and Sunderland could only manage a 0-0 away at Villa despite having a 2 yarder and Southampton eventually lost to Chelsea but were 1-0 up at half time. If just one of these had gone our way it would have been a very profitable day indeed.
So, some mid-week action for the premier league and it would be interesting to find out if mid-week matches differ in any way to those played at the weekend. In theory it could be argued that favourites are even more likely to win because of the strength in depth of their squads and their ability to rotate but whether or not this is true or not I’m not sure. If anyone has some stats on this please let me know.
For now I’ll be treating them the same as the weekend matches and the first up is tonight’s game with Crystal Palace and West Ham. Palace lost away to Norwich at the weekend and it makes sense to keep betting against them. Palace have scored the fewest goals so far in the Prem and with West Ham not prolific themselves, it looks like it will be a low scoring game. Palace have lost 8 of their 10 matches so far and I fancy West Ham who might start Carlton Cole to nick this from a set piece.
On to Wednesday’s matches and both Arsenal and Liverpool are at odds under 1.3. Arsenal maybe deservedly so but 1.22 is a tad too low in my opinion. Hull are organized and can be tricky to break down as Liverpool found out and 7.5 is a massive price on the draw for me.
Liverpool definitely don’t deserve to be under 1.3. Defensively they’ve were exposed by Everton who could have had 10 against them and Hull who aren’t the most attacking of teams. It’s hard to make a case for Norwich who have looked poor in recent weeks and have lost 4 out of 5 of their away games. Again I like the draw price which is 6.25 in this one.
Man United host Everton at Old Trafford and this one could be another entertaining one. Both sides are scoring goals for fun at the moment. I would only make United slight favourites here and the value has to be with Everton at 5.5.
Southampton did ok against Chelsea and they are clearly a very solid team who are expected to beat Aston Villa. My prices weren’t far off those of the Bookies in this one but my estimates have the value with Villa. They do perform better away and the Saints looked weary in the second half against Chelsea.
Stoke are a team to opposed at the moment. Everyone seems to be commenting on how well they are playing but they are not getting results. I don’t rate Mark Hughes as a manager and I think the team spirit is much better at Cardiff who are worth taking at odds of 3-1.
Chelsea had a slow start against Southampton on Sunday and are still not firing on all cylinders. They’re 1.57 to beat Sunderland and this is far too short for me. Sunderland are improving under Poyet and they beat Man City at home. Sunderland have also scored in 10 of their last 12 league matches and they could nick at least a point here.
How can you back against Newcastle at the moment? They are away at Swansea after winning all of their games in November and were for the most part very impressive last time out against West Brom. They are keeping the ball very well and have some very potent goals threats. Swansea are a bit lackluster at the moment and the 3.6 on the Magpies is a big price for a team that keeps winning.
Fulham who have finally sacked Martin Jol and who are now under the full guidance of former Man United coach Rene Mulensteen will be looking to put a stop to the rot against Tottenham. Spurs have been criticized in recent weeks but I can’t see anything other than 3 points for Spurs in this one.
Finally West Brom host Man City at the Hawthorns and an interesting stat is that West Brom have only won 7 league games in the whole of 2013! With City on fire at the moment 1.65 looks a decent enough price.
Best Bet – Man City to beat West Brom at 1.65 with Bet Victor