One of my favourite things to bet on is Premier League Football Matches. I don’t always bet on all matches, only the ones I feel I have an edge on the odds in but I do like to try and predict the outcomes regardless of having a bet or not.
The Premier league is notoriously hard to profit long term from, since the odds are very accurate due to information available so easily to all but liquidity is huge on these matches on Betfair so any small statistical edge could prove very profitable. So I have decided to see how my odds compare to that of Betfair’s each week and whether or not I can beat them long term.
I have knocked up a spreadsheet that allows me to enter the % chance that I believe each outcome has and then after I have put in Betfair’s current odds the sheet tells me how much to bet using the Kelly Staking Formula. It is based on units of 10 as the max but the sheet also calculates what the profit would have been if level stakes of 10 units had been used. You can download the spreadsheet here:
It’s not really fair to compare profit from Kelly stakes out of 10 with level stakes which are always 10 but the sheet also shows return of investment (ROI) which will gives us a better guide of which staking method is performing best (or worst). As soon as you input the result of the match the sheet with update the profit/loss.
So this week the spreadsheet has told me to make the following bets this week (See below). The bets that show the most value based on Betfair’s odds are West Brom at Home and both Man United and Liverppol to draw. My one real bet will in fact this week will indeed be West Brom at home at 2.16. Hodgson has worked his defensive magic on West Brom and Norwich are leaking goals for fun. 2.16 is a very good price in my opinion.
I won’t touch the United and Liverpool games but I do think they are too short. I don’t believe these teams win 7 times out of 10. Stoke are tricky opposition for Liverpool, having beaten them earlier this season and Sunderland are flying under O’Neill and with Chelsea struggling for wins, who knows what might happen in this one. I am also quite tempted by Villa at home. Everton are struggling for goals and have a host of injuries at the back.
United should ease past Bolton but I don’t believe anyone in this League warrants odds of sub 1.2. This isn’t La Liga and United have been beaten by Newcastle and Blackburn in their last 2 matches! I will update the sheet (link above) with Sunday and Monday’s games tomorrow, when team news is better known.