Just a quick post on the Premier League game for tonight. I entered my percentages into the sheet and then the Betfair odds and it tells me to back the draw tonight! Man City winning is clearly the most likely outcome and I agree with the 1 in 10 chance of Wigan winning but I feel the 4.9 offered on Betfair for a team that have already drawn against Liverpool and Chelsea at home is a tad high and therefore City are a bit short. City have Silva back but no Yaya Toure who in my opinion and statistically has influenced City’s results more this season.
I have also updated the sheet now so it only bets once per match, that being the outcome that has the biggest edge. From Saturday’s results it was clear that in betting on 2 outcomes in some matches had limited my profit and although there will have been times where the second best outcome did come in, I have decided that one bet per match is the way to go.
It seems safer to bet on two outcomes in match but I feel it is probably the same as ‘greening up’ too early or laying the opposition when you feel that the other team will win. Long term it will be more profitable to go with the biggest value bet. Doing this has bumped up the return on investment to 23.20% using Kelly and 72.44% using Level stakes! Mathematically Kelly should come out on top by the end of the season if my odds are accurate but I have a feeling there is more value in bigger prices and I may have a tendency to overestimate shorter prices a bit (like Arsenal yesterday) and this is why level stakes may turn out better
Why not download the spreadsheet and see if you can do better! Let me know if you don’t understand the sheet or think it can be improved in any way. I am going to add a setting for level stake, just in case you want something other than 10 units and will also add a setting for Kelly Bank per bet too.