So it’s week 2 of the Premier League predictions and time to see if we can keep beating the Betfair odds and stay in profit. Last week saw an ROI of 55.20% and anything similar would be brilliant! Judging by the spreadsheet, it seems I think there is a lot of value backing the away teams this weekend. Villa look good value to me even though it’s a Derby game against Wolves and Wigan impressed against Man City on Monday and are up against a dismal QPR side.
You can see the bets that the sheet tells me have value based on the percentage chance of each outcome that I’ve inputted below. Level stakes are currently proving to better than Kelly stakes (Kelly currently 10.7% ROI) but you can see exactly how much value each bet has based on my assumptions by the size of the Kelly stakes out of 10 in the actual sheet. (Link at the end of this post)
Aside from the Chelsea and Liverpool matches who are clear favourites, the matches look like they should be very close this weekend and the value has to be backing the away sides or the draw in seemingly 50-50 matches. The spreadsheet has however told me to back Norwich against Chelsea and although I don’t have much confidence in the bet it’s value we’re looking for and 6.0 is a big price for a free-scoring home side against an overrated Chelsea side who have been struggling to find the net.
I’ve added a column that comes up with an error and tells you if the percentages you’ve entered don’t add up to 100%. Download it and have a go yourself!