Premier League Predictions (Week 4)

What with all the media circus surrounding John Terry and the England captaincy, you could be forgiven for not knowing there was Premiership football on today. We’ll have to wait for Super Sunday to find out if Rio Ferdinand shakes John Terry’s hand when Chelsea entertain Man United and there’s the juicy fixture of Tottenham v Liverpool to look forward on Monday but first there’s 7 other fixtures to look forward to today.

I’m hoping that today is a great day for away results as my predictions have indicated value in all away teams bar the Arsenal v Blackburn game on which I have been instructed to back the draw. To be honest I didn’t see this coming and is probably the last thing I need after my first losing week and when you consider that home teams on average win about 45% of the time.  My predictions comfortably have the home teams as favourites in all but the Wigan match too and another losing week is definitely a possibility if the better, in form teams perform.
However this is the unpredictable Premier League we’re talking about and looking at the prices on the away teams as a whole though, there are some big prices, not least Fulham at 14.5. Man City have won 16 times in a row at Eastlands but Fulham are a good passing team and this is a huge price. If this comes in we won’t need any other away results to be in profit!
One thing to note is that the Kelly bets are much smaller than they have been in the past weeks. This means that my predictions are pretty close to that of the ‘Betfair market’ and there is not as much value as there has been in other weeks. Hopefully my estimations of the value being on the away team will be proved correct but if this is not the case I reckon we could see Kelly Stakes pull even closer to that of level stakes. Level stakes are currently showing an ROI of 25% with Kelly at 15%.
Let’s hope for some big priced away winners this week. Good luck all.
For further detail see here but actual selections are below:
Date Home Away Selection
04-Feb-12 Arsenal Blackburn Draw
04-Feb-12 Norwich Bolton Bolton
04-Feb-12 QPR Wolves Wolves
04-Feb-12 Stoke Sunderland Sunderland
04-Feb-12 West Brom Swansea Swansea
04-Feb-12 Wigan Everton Everton
04-Feb-12 Man City Fulham Fulham