We reach week 9 in the Premier League fixture list and this time we’re in Aberdeen!
It’s worth a quick check up on the outright market at this point. MVG is deserved favourite at 11/10 with sportingbet. He’s thrown the best darts so I wouldn’t deter anyone from backing him. Next we have Gary Anderson who looks a good price right at 9/2 with Bwin. Gary and Michael have looked in a league of their own and I just can’t see anyone else winning the Premier League apart from the two front-runners. Given his performance of late I really don’t see much appeal in the 11/2 best price offered on Phil Taylor. 20/1 seems big on Adrian Lewis but his darts are just too inconsistent for him to enter calculations. Even though Chizzy has been wonderful in patches, 8/1 for a man who can’t win big matches isn’t worth chancing.
Recommendation: An each way bet on Anderson to nothing (9/2 – Bwin)
Dave Chisnall v Phil Taylor, 19.15
I have been guilty in the past of betting on reputation and Phil Taylor’s odds here are based only on his reputation. In spite of all of Phil Taylor’s innumerable achievements, the fact is that he has lost 5 of his previous 6 matches. These haven’t even been against the best opposition. Peter Wright and Barney have (twice) have taken the scalp of Taylor. However, it’s the performances as well as the results that are worrying. Last week’s average of 86.80 is shocking and only followed a 93.55 the week prior. To add to this his checkouts have abandoned him: 21% and 18% just isn’t good enough.
Phil will play a man in tremendous form. Three ton plus averages in four weeks demonstrates that Chizzy has found a level of consistency that he has not previously had. His opponents haven’t been able to touch him. He beat James Wade 7-1, Anderson 7-3, Taylor 7-4 and Lewis 7-2. You can’t argue with these fantastic results.
Form isn’t everything and I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor romped home 7-2 with an 110 average and a 70% checkout percentage. However, this logic wouldn’t have got you far last week and it’s worth chancing Taylor’s slump to continue.
Chisnall draw no bet (13/10 – boylesports)
Stephen Bunting v Adrian Lewis, 20.00
The match odds seem about right here with Lewis the slightly odds on favourite. Lewis has won two on the bounce so confidence will be high. Bunting has only won one of his last six but has really been pushing his opponents as was evident in his 7-5 loss to MVG last week. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing overs in the total legs market as I think this could go to the wire.
However, the market that has really caught my eye is the most 180 market. Lewis has thrown 14 maximums in the last 4 weeks, whereas Bunting has thrown 16. It seems perverse therefore that Lewis is 20/21 favourite in this market. Lewis is finding his rhythm but this is a 50:50 market and Bunting is value here.
Bunting to throw the most 180s (9/5 – boylesports)
James Wade v Gary Anderson, 20.45
I’m a huge fan of James Wade and I think 3/1 is a big price on him winning this one. Wade has been a little disappointing of late (particularly in last week’s 7-1 defeat to Chizzy) but I think he will bounce back and make this a tight game. His last three defeats were against in form men in Chizzy, Lewis and MVG and I think most people would have struggled. Wade is known for being Mr Consistent and his customary 95 average and 50% on the checkouts should see him post at least 5 legs on the board.
Anderson showed some vulnerability last week in his defeat to Chizzy. He also drew the week before to Barney. Although he will want to get back to winning ways, I can’t see this being by a large margin given how he’s throwing at the moment.
These two have shared some very close previous encounters and I am confident this will follow suit.
Over 10.5 legs (8/13 – skybet)
Michael van Gerwen v Raymond van Barneveld, 21.30
The clash of the Dutchmen! I’m actually keen on backing a coral special offer here. The offer is for MVG to win the match, score the most 180s and take the highest check out.
It’s very difficult to oppose MVG in the match market. He hasn’t lost since 3rd January – that’s 17 matches unbeaten. He beat Barney 7-2 earlier in this Premier League and while Barney’s form has picked up since then, I can’t really see MVG being troubled.
In the last three weeks, MVG has thrown 15 180s, Barney has thrown 10. I would be incredibly surprised if Barney did manage to throw more than MVG in this one. The fast pace will suit both men but no-one is better than Michael in this market.
Obviously the winning player is more likely to take out the big check out as he will take more legs. This is the least likely part of the bet to win as it is the most down to chance. However, MVG has taken out a ton plus finish in 7 of his last 9 games and should really be winning this market.
Michael van Gerwen to win, hit the most 180s and take out the highest checkout (9/4 – coral)
Phil Taylor v Stephen Bunting, 22.15
As mentioned last week, the quality of the second game of the night can dip quite substantially because of fatigue. I will therefore be advising the same bet that won last week – under in the total 180s market.
Phil Taylor has failed to hit a single 180 in his last two Premier League matches. He seems to have reverted back to his old tactics of switching to treble 19 at the first sign of a potential block.
Bunting is a more prolific 180 hitter but I feel that fatigue will get the better of him. He has only hit more than 3 maximums in 3 of his last 12 matches. As Taylor is unlikely to contribute more than 1 or 2, it seems unlikely that this cap will be met.
Under 5.5 180s (5/6 – bet365)