There are three teams (Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City) priced under 1.4 this weekend and although those odds won’t excite many punters, there’s still plenty of potential value to be found. The premier league action actually begins this evening with a Friday night football special between West Ham and Brighton. Neck and neck in 14th and 15th place and with 14 goals between them after 8 games each, it’s not exactly a mouth-watering fixture and a low scoring affair looks likely. The total goals market reflects this and are a best price of 1.72 with MarathonBet. If there is to be a winner you’d fancy West Ham with home advantage but backing them at odds on is not appealing. Don’t be surprised if you find the urge to turn over for Gogglebox at 9pm and it’ll probably be worth keeping the betting bank fully loaded for Saturday.
The lunchtime match on Saturday is Chelsea at home to Watford and given last week’s results, Chelsea losing away at Palace and Watford winning away at Arsenal, a price of 1.4 for Chelsea looks a tad skinny. Results in a low scoring game like football though can be misleading at times and the fact that Palace benefited from a fortunate own goal and Watford also lucky to receive a generous penalty should be noted. Confidence at Stamford Bridge is low however and with the Hornets recording an impressive 10 points from a possible 12 away from home, this is unlikely to be as easy as the odds suggest for the Blues. Watford are in fact averaging 9 shots away from home (5th best) which quite surprisingly is the same amount as Chelsea have been firing at home (9th best).
Watford have not lost by more than one goal in their last 4 meetings with Chelsea and taking them on the handicap market (+1.25) at 2.1 looks the play here.
Attempting to back up their impressive win and performance against Chelsea last week, Palace travel to Newcastle. The Magpies are pretty solid at home (losing just once to Spurs) but Wilfred Zaha looks full of confidence and will be a handful for the Geordies’ defence. Still bottom of the league, Palace have been plagued by injuries, had a tough run of fixtures and have been creating chances.
A close match is expected but I think Palace are worth backing in the draw no bet market at 3.0.
Swansea at home to Leicester looks a very tough match to call and the bookies just about make Leicester favourites. Third from Bottom I can certainly see why Leicester are priced as they are but odds of 2.75 look good to me. I’ve not been impressed with Swansea attacking prowess and the stats back this up showing them as bottom of the table for average amount of shots at home (5.5 per match).
An impending change of management often given the players a kick up the arse and I think the Foxes are a good price to get the win at the Millenium Stadium.
I like the look of both Arsenal and Liverpool away from home for the matches on Sunday. Everton are in dire straits nad have already lost as many at Goodison Park as they did the whole of last season. Arsenal were in truth a tad unfortunate to lose against Watford and are playing well.
Arsenal are in second place for accurate passes in the final third (75.1%) and spurred on by the words of Troy Deeney I expect them to have too much for the Toffees.
I was surprised to see Spurs quite as short as 2.26 for their intriguing match with Liverpool. Mane will still be missing for the Reds but they showed against Man United last week that they can dominate and create without him. Liverpool average 10.67 shots away from home and Spurs have the second worst shot conversion ratio at home with only Crystal Palace fairing worse.
Klopp had an excellent record against the top 6 away from home last season, winning 4 and losing just one and I think Liverpool are a superb prices to beat Spurs in the final match of the weekend.
Watford +1.25 (v Chelsea) at 2.1
Leicester to beat Swansea at 2.75
Crystal Palace draw no bet (v Newcastle) at 3.0
Arsenal to beat Everton at 2.08
Liverpool to beat Spurs at 3.5
Premier League Betfair Exchange Prices
West Ham (1.86) The Draw (3.55) Brighton (5.4) – Overround is 100.45%
Chelsea (1.4) The Draw (5.3) Watford (9.6) – Overround is 100.71%
Swansea (2.92) The Draw (3.35) Leicester (2.76) – Overround is 100.33%
Man City (1.12) The Draw (12.5) Burnley (30) – Overround is 100.62%
Stoke (2.22) The Draw (3.55) Bournemouth (3.65) – Overround is 100.61%
Huddersfield (11.5) The Draw (5.3) Man Utd (1.37) – Overround is 100.56%
Newcastle (2.04) The Draw (3.55) C Palace (4.3) – Overround is 100.44%
Southampton (1.87) The Draw (3.5) West Brom (5.5) – Overround is 100.23%
Everton (4) The Draw (3.65) Arsenal (2.08) – Overround is 100.47%
Tottenham (2.24) The Draw (3.65) Liverpool (3.5) – Overround is 100.61%