Prem Predictions Wk 2 (Sunday Update)

It was another profitable Saturday for my predictions yesterday. There weren’t as many away victories as I predicted but I got 2 right in West Brom and Aston Villa. Throw in the draw at Everton and we were immediately in profit despite only winning in 3 results out of 8!

This just shows you how important it is to find value and backing well known favourites offers very little return. In fact yesterday no return at all, as Chelsea and Liverpool both failed to win. I calculated the value based on Betfair’s odds was to oppose them but I got the draw and loss the wrong way round.

Yesterday saw a return on investment of 42% from level stakes and 21.55% for Kelly stakes, giving us a total of 49.33% for Level Stake and 14.89% for Kelly so far. Not too shabby, albeit still very early days. Level stakes still leads the way but Kelly staking moves a little closer.

Today’s games much like yesterday’s seem pretty close on paper. I have inputted my % chances and the ehas told me that the value lies with both the Manchester teams! Based on the Kelly stakes on the spreadsheet you can see that Man Utd are the better value pick as the odds are pretty close in agreement with me on the Man City Tottenham game.

Arsenal are still without Vermalen and I can see United beating them pretty comfortably by a couple of goals. Last week against Swansea they proved they lacked desire and hunger and together with their defensive frailties, I think a result for Arsenal today is unlikely. Man City v Spurs is difficult to call. Man City are showing that they are missing Yaya Toure but they’re still a pretty solid outfit and I think their disciplined approach will give them the edge of Spurs. Spurs play open exciting football and I think this could suit City.

http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx