One of our tipsters casts his ‘Eagle Eyes‘ over the upcoming Paddy Power Gold Cup race and uses some statistics to picks out the best bets.
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Cheltenham 14th Nov
14.25hrs.
The first big race of the season is almost upon us, plus a lot of tough races to solve over the three days at NH HQ Cheltenham. The excitement will be high for all those NH fans who have waited for some competitive action to appear after a drought of 7mths. There will be plots aplenty involving stables both sides of the Irish Sea, alongside some magical racing that will lift the spirits of anyone suffering from the blues at autumn/winter time.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is always run at a frantic place with no hiding place for runners lacking in stamina. You usually need a horse that stays further than 20F and who can sit up with the pace; creeping into the race from the back isn’t an option.
The race is usually won by a horse near the front of the betting, though there have been big priced placed horses.
C/D winners have won 9 of the last 12 runnings of this race.
Forget horses over 8yo. The last 12 runnings the winners were 5yo(1) 6yo(3) 7yo(7) & 8yo(1).
Now finally a very important stat: all of the last 12 runnings have been won by second & third year chasers.
So using my stats let’s look at the chosen ones:
Irish Cavalier, Boondooma, Kings Palace, Buywise, Annacotty, Art Mauresque, Present View.
Odds at time of press:
Kings Palace & Boondooma 8/1
Irish Cavalier 10/1
Art Mauresque 14/1
Buywise & Annacoty 16/1
Present View 20/1
Present View ran a cracker to finish third in this race last year. He was with leaders before taking it over with four to go. He was passed by the front two after the last fence, but is one pound lower in the weights this year.
Buywise should have won a big race by now, but his jumping lets him down. He finished fourth last year and is 3lbs worse off with Present View, but can be given the same chance if he finally jumps cleanly.
Annacoty has the profile of a live contender: runs up with the pace, won over 20f & 24f and can go on g/soft or worse ground. He also is now with Alan King who can surely get more improvement out of this former grade 1 winner.
Art Mauresque is trained by duo winner handler Nicholls who won with another 5yo (Caid Du Berlais) last year. Very lightly raced (had problems) he showed his worth when finishing third to Irish Cavalier at Aintree when receiving just 2lbs from the winner. Since then he has romped home in a novice chase over C/D, skipping clear at the end. He has a pull of 7lbs with the Cavalier for 3L.
Irish Cavalier’s last win has been covered in Art’s summary. He ran a great race at Punchestown last spring in a Grade 1 over 25F and won’t want for stamina at the death in this race. My worry is that the trainer isn’t flying along, and now being on 156 he may be collared by the h’capper.
Kings Parade is trained by Pipe who has won it once himself and owned it with his father in the late 90s – early 2000s. The problem with this horse is that he has flopped in the last two Cheltenham festivals when heavily backed. The plus signs are that he does love Cheltenham having won four times here and he may just be better in the autumn/ early winter.
Boondooma romped home over 2miles here last month, leading all the way and finding plenty after the last. Dr Richard Newland has found another ex Irish horse that he can improve over time. The Boon is a very free going sort who will either run to the line or fall apart with one to go; looking forward to seeing how he goes.
Conclusion:
Taking in all of the above I will have to go with Kings Parade & Art Mauresque to fight it out with Annacoty. I will go for the Nicholls plot Art Mauresque over Kings Parade and Annacoty who is a good e/w shout.