‘No Bet’ Matches

Arsenal’s win last night added a little more to the profits from this round of Premier League games predicted by myself using the value finder spreadsheet. Away wins for West Ham and Sunderland providing the bulk of the profit but Man City’s win helping too.

The profit is now 138.5 units giving a return on investment of 7.78%. The updated sheet can be found here.

I’ve managed to climb back up to 6th palce in Cassini’s Friendly Tipster League (under alias Webbo) and in case you’re wondering why the return is smaller on there it’s because I started posting the selections a couple of weeks after and also didn’t include all my slections for the first week. There is also the fact that the Pinnacle closing prices are not as good on my selections as the best industry prices I achieve on a Friday as mentioned by the Football Analyst in his recent post.

I sometimes find weeks like this quite frustrating because I actually felt that West Ham and Sunderland were the stand out bets of the bigger prices and felt that my money would probably be wasted on huge outsiders Norwich and Palace, despite thinking the favourites were too short. I looked back in hindsight and think that maybe these should be ‘no bet’ matches.

I think this is a common problem with manual bettors because they can’t envisage a certain team winning and although the price of the favourite is too short they’d rather not risk it. This is by no means a bad idea, especially if the value is only minimal and money kept in your pocket cannot be lost but it’s important to look back and remind yourself of the kind of profits that these type of bets can provide.

I certainly didn’t see the shock wins for Sunderland against both Man City and Everton happening nor did I the win for West Brom at Old Trafford earlier on in the season. My estimations indicated that they were value though and if I’d called no bet on Norwich and Palace at the weekend then these bets would have fallen foul of that rule too. Without big wins like these my results would be looking rather shabby,

Sometimes it’s the stakes I have a problem with and perhaps these bets aren’t always of equal value. This is where Kelly Staking comes in and the current spreadsheet does in fact show the Kelly stakes out performing level stakes by almost 4%.

I only ever place my bets to level stakes as I wasn’t confident in my pricing. A few priced massively incorrectly could really turn the results but I’m encourage by these findings and may look at using Kelly for these soon.

The win for Arsenal last night completed a disastrous weeks for the bookmakers and has believed to have cost them £25 million across the board. They’ll get it back eventually of course and the amount of accumulators placed will be sure to rise. I’m wondering though if the short priced favourites might be a little shorter than usual this weekend just to help speed up the process.

Anyone remember the Magician’s thread on Betfair where the prem had a draw drought in 2010(?) and he began backing draws giving him a very nice profit? Perhaps it wouldn’t be a bad ploy to start backing all big outsiders for the next couple of weeks…