Many of us will have had those horrific trading matches where we’ve turned a bad position into an even worse one or chased a bet when we shouldn’t have. On many occasions I’ve heard people say that they reckon they would make a profit if they staked sensibly or had ‘discipline’. Well, would you really? Is it your staking that’s letting you down and do you actually have an edge?
I have developed a new tool to find out exactly that. It will take your downloaded betting history (betting history not profit and loss) from Betfair and analyse it, working out your profit and loss to level stakes and showing whether your bets are value on average. Generally if your % return is better to level stakes than your actual return % which the tool also shows you, you’d be better of reverting to level staking.
The level stakes are calculated using £100 for each bet. Don’t compare your actual profit amount and loss with the level staking profit and loss because it will be an unfair comparison and it’s the return % that we are interested in.
The Betfair Analysis Tool will also tell you what your returns are for back bets are compared with lay bets. This might help you settle the age-old debate of whether trading out is benefiting you or not. It also shows profit/loss at odds on compared with your profit/loss betting at odds of evens and above.
The tool lists every bet individually too so you can see and check the workings of each bet if you want to. Here is a summary of the things it will tell you:
1) How much your back bets made compared to lay bets so you can see which served you best
2) How much profit/loss you made both backing and laying at odds on
3) How much profit/loss you made both backing and laying at odds of evens and above
4) Compares your actual return % to what it would have been betting the same amount on each bet
5) Further level stake based analysis
The tool has shown some interesting findings particularly for my lay bets which was actually quite unexpected and something that wouldn’t have been evident to me otherwise.
I hope you find this tool useful and if you have any questions or ideas for improvement then please let me know by replying to this post. It would be great to get some feedback!