Liverpool v Tottenham and Free Bet

by Brian

February 6, 2012

I bet you can’t guess who I’m on in this one?! Yep it’s the away side again. This is probably becoming boring for people now but I must be getting value otherwise I wouldn’t be in profit. After 3 good results on Saturday I was unlucky Sunday because there were large periods in the matches when both our selections, Villa and Man United were the better team and both had wonder goals scored against them.

So that makes it 3 wins from 9 at the weekend and still 32.78% ROI! Even if we lose on the Liverpool v Spurs game we are still 19.50% to the good for this week and that just emphasises how important value is. Perhaps there have been a freak amount of away results or a lack of draws and the odds that Betfair has offered on the 2 main sections has been good enough to profit regardless. I think I will do a control at some point soon to test what might have happened as I think this will be interesting.

On to tonight’s game then. So why is the away side value again? Well because they currently sit higher in the table for one, there form is better and they’ve found scoring goals easier all season. They are without key attacking players however. Van der Vaart, Adebayor, Defoe and Lennon are all likely to be missing and the spirit in the Liverpool camp has improved recently, even Andy Caroll has managed to find the net again.The team news has cause Spurs to drift somewhat from 3.25 to 4.3 and whilst the team news is important I think there’s been a bit of an overreaction to it, hence the value being on Spurs. Louis Saha could make his Spurs debut too and so I’ll be hoping he has the same sort of impact that Cisse had for Newcastle yesterday.

If you don’t fancy spending your own cash on this one bet365 are offering a free in play bet on this one. You have to make a pre-match bet first, which you can then lay off on Betfair. You’ll probably lose a quid or 2 on that one but then you’ll have a free £50 bet on anything you want because if it loses bet365 will refund it. If you don’t have an account then sign up here as you can also get £200 in free bets.

Punter’s diary explains in a bit more detail how to make the most of the free bet:

Last time Bet365 offered a free bet on a live match I cashed in nicely so I hope to do the same tonight. I have bet £50 on Liverpool to win at odds of 2.05 at Bet365 as my pre match bet. That means I now have a £50 risk free in play bet to use once the game kick offs.

I have already covered my pre match bet by laying Liverpool at 2.1 at Betfair. Now whatever happens I will lose £2.50. That’s because if Liverpool win I get £52.50 back from Bet365 but lose £55 at befair. If Liverpool don’t win I get £47.50 back from Betfair after commission but lose my £50 at Bet365. So why do it?

Well now I have a risk free bet of £50 on the match. I am keen to back Spurs but want to know the team news before I bet. For me Adebayor is a key figure for Spurs as he holds the ball up so well. If he plays I am keen to back them.

So if I do bet my £50 on Spurs at around 3.8, the current price I stand to win £140. The risk is £0 as Bet365 refund any losing bets as part of the free bet deal.

So in summary if in fact I do back Spurs I stand to win £140 and the risk is just £2.50 from the original bets on Liverpool at Bet365 and Betfair. So I am getting odds of 55/1 on Tottenham to win his match. Not bad.