Inplay Trading – My eureka moment

I have often come across trading blogs were the author all of a sudden claims to have had a eureka moment. It often sounds as though they have just found the key to unlimited profits and will never lose again but often it’s just a eureka moment in terms of approach and that’s the sort of moment I have had recently.

I already profit from tennis trading but find it troublesome. I get frustrated by trading decisions I took in play e.g. greening up too much or not enough and by the fact that it’s very difficult to analyse the trades afterwards. But inspired by my recent discoveries of just how beneficial a measured approach can be in betting and also the power of turnover I decided to think along the same lines with in play betting.

Basically I have decided that any bet I take shall be of the same liability each and every time. It will be in ‘play betting’ and not ‘in play trading’. If I like a bet on either side of the market I take it for the same amount each time. There will be no greening up, no trading out for a free bets or redding out for a level loss. This way decisions are easy, value shines through and I can place much more bets to increase my turnover. Quite often I choose my entry point in a tennis match, later green out and then watch as various volatile market changes take place and lots of value passes by but because I had already made a profitable trade I was too risk averse to re-enter the market.

I think using Betfair makes it all too easy to give away value and make rash decisions. I’ve often said that the best time to trade and find value is early on and to get out before the math has progressed too much and if you are looking to make one trade this is fine but there is also a lot of value to be had later in the match where people get greedy and now I plan to take on these bets too. In reality my stakes were too high to be making several bets per match without worry and I now plan to correct this. The more value bets the better! I will also be able to evaluate my inplay bets better and see where I’m really getting value.

It’s funny because you spend years searching for complicated methods of betting and trading to make the most profit but as with most things in life the best and most effective method is usually the simplest.

Just the one prem match tonight and it’s a tough one to call. Villa are a very defensive team and they don’t really need to win tonight. Bolton on the otehr hand will feel a win is vital and so motivation will be high. This could leave them exposed on the counter attack if they fail to break Villa down but any of the 3 outcomes wouldn’t surprise me and so the highest price of 4.2 on Bolton has to be the value.

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