That one magical race of the year is once again rapidly approaching, last year I relived a few memories and looked into the statistical side of the race (with no success whatsoever). This year I’ve skipped the memories and will be jumping straight into a statistical summary based on previous winners but firstly a quick summary of years results as I wouldn’t want to mislead people and have chose to take this opportunity to let you know this statistical summary is just a bit of fun, although there are quite a few of you who do bet based on previous statistics although those of you that do tend to have your own specific stats that you look into. Last years stats ranged from +7 as a top rating down to -3 for the lowest ratings
Last year only 3 horses made the top 2 ratings with only 1 of these finishing the course and that was back in 16th.
And from the 3rd lowest rating of -1 came the winner Many Clouds, rated as one of the 5 least likeliest as only 5 horses came out with a minus rating.
Seeing that alot of the online bookmakers pay 6 places here’s how last years top 6 rated statistically
1st. Many Clouds -1
2nd. Saint Are +4
3rd. Monbeg Dude +3
4th. Alvarado +5
5th. Shuthefrontdoor +3
6th. Royale Knight +5
Personally I’m not a great follower of statistics and for that reason I made my selections before looking into the stats as I can still be swayed by them, so if stats can sway you and you don’t really want them to it might be an idea to stop here and return at a later date, if you just treat them as a bit fun enjoy. This year I’ve analysed the top 50 in the handicap to allow for up to 10 withdrawals before the big day, the statistics used are identical to those used last year and include
Weight: Stats suggest you should be looking for your selection to be carrying between 10st3 and 11st.
Age: Statistically you want your horse aged 9, 10 or 11.
Class: You should be looking for horse rated no lower than 136 on the official ratings and should have won in class 2 or above.
Jumping: Those with experience over the bigger National fences statistically do better than this without and those that have raced in less than 10 chases have a poor record.
Fitness: A selection that has ran in the 34 days is statistically a better option than those coming back from a longer break
Big Field Experience: Again the stats suggest your selection should have at least placed in a 16+ runner race.
Betting: Quite often a reasonable guide, but the stats suggest something from the top 8 in betting is good thing.
Stamina: Looking for your selection to have won over at least 3 Miles.
Hurdles: Looking at those horses that are being aimed at solely for this race often attempt to protect their handicap rating and compete over the sticks to get race fit without risking a rise in the race.
Last Time Out: Stats suggest those that finished in the first 4 last time out are where we should be looking and those not completing should be ignored.
Irish National: The previous years race statistically known for producing horses that make frame.
Based on all these factors each horse as been awarded plus points for falling within the ideal statistics nothing for being just outside and minus a point for falling way outside and the final ratings range from +8 down to -1 and are as follows:-
+8 Goonyella
+7 The Druids Nephew
+6 Many Clouds, Holywell, Kruzhlinin, Rule The World, Just A Par, Saint Are
+5 Catligford Lough, Triolo D’Alene, Shutthefrontdoor, Soll, Unioniste, Katenko, Ballycasey, Spring Heeled, The Romford Pele
+4 Rocky Creek, Boston Bob, Double Ross, Morning Assembly, Gallant Oscar, Bishops Road
+3 The Last Samurai, Hadrians Approach, Silvianco Conti, Ballynagour, Turban, O’Faolains Boy, On His Own, Roi Du Mee
+2 Third Intention, Sir Des Champs, Buywise, Aachen, Le Reve, Vics Canvas, Living Next Door, Black Thunder, Katkeau, Home Farm, Pineau De Re, Knock House
+1 First Lieutenant, Gilgamboa
0 Ucello Conti, Vieux Lion Rouge, Pendra
-1 Onenightinvienna, Wonder Charm
Biggest changes from last years statistics are Many Clouds moving from -1 last year up to +6 in this years stats and in the opposite direction First Lieutenant has dropped from +6 to a +1, just to show the difference a year can make statistically.
Whatever your selection method and whatever your selection
Good Luck Sargent M.