No Premier League today as it’s FA Cup weekend. I won’t be embarrassing myself by offering my FA Cup tips because I think they’d be pretty useless. I love the unpredictability of the FA Cup but it’s just a bit too unpredictable for me. When I think there’s a chance of a shock the Prem teams wins easily and vice versa. I would be very tempted to lay Chelsea today at 1.34 against Birmingham for what it’s worth so cue the 4-0 home win! Seriously though Birmingham head to Stamford Bridge unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions, a run based on a defence that has conceded just three goals since the turn of the year. An upset would be no surprsise here. The under 2.5 goals is an incredible 2.3 on Betfair and this has to be value?!
I also need to work on the Champions League after declaring that Milan were a value lay at 2.22 against Arsenal. It shouldn’t be too hard for me to adapt my thinking to other football competitions but I don’t watch as much of these matches or keep records on any trends or indeed any bets I have had. I will look at this soon but for now I want to specialise in my Premier League Odds compiling.
I recently found out that most tipsters provide their results without commission being included. This is quite pleasing because if I take off commission on the Premier League Selections, it bumps the ROI up from 17.73% to 24.1%. I didn’t expect it to make such a difference after just 49 bets but it really does all add up. That said people do bet at various commission levels, especially if betting on Betfair and other exchanges so leaving commission out would make it easier to compare with others, unless everyone could agree on a minimum as a standard.
What I didn’t mention i my last post was that Kelly has almost crept up level with Level Stakes! I am very pleased to see Kelly get close to the Level Stakes bets I’m because this means that the odds are realistic across all the matches. The more accurate my odds are the better Kelly should perform so I will be very pleased to see Kelly out perform Level Stakes in the long term.
Looking forward to the boxing tonight after Derek Chisora decided to slap Vitali Klitschko at the weigh-in! I am British but I really admire and respect Klitschko and Chisora deserves to get a good pasting after those antics, if indeed they weren’t stages and many cynics are suggesting. Klitschko is available to back at 1.1 on Betfair for those of you that like to lump on shorties.