Aren’t there some wonderful betting and trading resources around on the Internet these days? If I’d read or had access to these from the start I can guarantee it would have saved me from a fair few losses and some mug punting but that’s part of learning and development. I’ve seen a few betting directories around but no simple one page site that plainly lists and categorises links to all the best resources on the web and so I decided to knock one up here: www.bettingtools.co.uk
. I want to know about any brilliant sites I’m missing out on, so please let me know!
I know it’s not much to look at and I did just knock it up on the spare hour or two I had at the weekend but I just want to get all the very best links in one easy to find place and am not too concerned with the look of the page. I probably will look to improve it eventually but for now I’d just like to get some more links added and maybe some review written. I know there are many more sites than what I’ve added so far but it’s a start and I’m sure more will come to me as I go through my bookmarks etc. So again if you think there are any betting sites and resources that are brilliant enough to be placed on this page, please let me know. Also if you have any ideas for improvement or development of the page please feel free to contact me.
The weekend’s betting was disappointing for me. I layed Wigan as my tip of the day and they only went and beat Sunderland 4-0! My Premier League Value Selections also made a small loss of -13.29%, despite landing the draw at Wigan v Aston Villa and Arsenal winning at home to Spurs. We were actually looking like bagging a whopping 49.57% profit briefly when Norwich equalised against Man Utd. Unfortunately that one goal from Ryan Giggs was the difference this week between a huge profit and a smallish loss. I still have faith in these selections though and long-term I’m sure they’ll remain in profit. We are still showing An ROI of 13.86% on level stakes and 14.12% for Kelly stakes. It wasn’t so much that Kelly has a good week, in fact it did worse % wise than level stakes but the Kelly stakes were very small as our price were extremely close to those of the market. Here is the updated sheet: http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx
This marks a bit of a milestone in that it was the first weekend was that Kelly stakes overtook level stakes. If my percentage predictions were to have an accuracy in them, Kelly was always going to prove better long-term but I wasn’t sure due to overestimating short prices and with much of the value being in longer prices but now that Kelly is ahead perhaps I will look at changing my staking. It’s not Kelly in the conventional sense in that each bet is a Kelly stake out of a fixed mini bank (10 units) rather than the whole bank. This is a much less volatile approach which I feel is required for sports trading but that said none of my estimations have been so far out of line with the market to risk a huge loss so maybe a full Kelly wouldn’t be so disastrous after all!
Either way the important thing is the varied staking based on the edge that you have on the odds and what percentage of the bank you use to calculate this doesn’t really matter as long as you keep it the same for all bets and that your bank doesn’t get so small that you can’t put any bets on anymore! It’s actually quite difficult to operate Kelly in the conventional sense too because most of the games are on at the same time. You could recalculate the % against the new bank after each week but again this leads to a lot of volatility and a bad week can really hit you hard.
Finally what a cup final yesterday’s match at Wembley proved to be. It really did have a bit of everything. Liverpool may have won but it was a toss of the coin as to who was going to win after it went to Penalties and there’s no reason for Cardiff to feel too disheartened. It’s only the Carling Cup after all but you wouldn’t have known the way Liverpool celebrated!