Horse Racing

2015 Grand National Preview

Our Cheltenham Competition winner Tracy explains to punters what they should be looking out for to help find them a winning bet in the Grand National. Below Tracy also gives us her top ten contenders and her 4 best value bets too.

Remember that BetVictor are paying 6 places on the National and are also Non-Runner, No Bet. If you don’t already have an account sign up now and will also get a £25 bonus.

 

One of the most exciting races of the racing calendar is nearly upon us – The Grand National. First run in 1839, it is a race of fortune and misfortune, excitement and disappointment, a race that everyone looks forward to, punting experts and novices alike because the race is somewhat of a lottery, You don’t necessarily need to know your stuff to land a big priced winner in The Grand National.

In saying that though, there are a number of trends that Grand National winners seem to follow year upon year. You will find however that a lot of the runners fit in with a lot of these trends. How do you narrow it down even more?

One of the most important trends is WEIGHT. It is rare for a horse carrying more than 11st 5lbs to win the national, although it has been done before. Neptune Collonges did it in 2012 carrying 11st 6lbs.

Also important is the AGE of the horse. The last 10 winners were aged between 9 and 11. A horse younger than 8 hasn’t won the National since 1940 and a horse older than 12 hasn’t won since 1923! The majority of horses to win the national have been aged 9 or 10.

CLASS is also very important. The majority of winners are rated between 136 and 157. It is very rare for a horse to win the National from outside of the handicap.

STAMINA is key too. Concentrate on horses that have proven their stamina. Have they won at least 10 chases over 3 miles? Preferably 4 miles+ ? How valuable were those chases? Horses that have won chase prizes of more than £13,000 have a good record in this race because they have proven ability.

EXPERIENCE. Has the horse had experience of the big Aintree fences? They can be daunting for even the most experienced of horses. Previous runs in the National is a big positive.

Something you cannot really take into account until the day is the GOING. The great British weather has been partly responsible for many a national flop. It is important that you choose a horse which is proven under the conditions.

And finally, have they been AIMED at the Grand National? Many horses have tried to win the Grand National after running at Cheltenham only 3/4weeks earlier with the vast majority failing suggesting 4 weeks is not enough time to recover from such gruelling races. In the past, horses that have had a prep run between 6-8 weeks before the race have done best.

Before I go through what I think are the top 10 contenders and then give my best 4 bets, there are some popular horses that statistically seem to have less of a chance. They are:

 

Cause of Causes

According to the trends, this horse is too young at 7, has no Grand National Experience and ran very recently at Cheltenham.

 

Lord Windermere

Also ran at Cheltenham, Has no Grand National experience and perhaps most importantly carries top weight at 11st 10lbs.

 

Many Clouds

Has a lot of weight and also ran at Cheltenham.

 

The Druids Nephew

Ran at Cheltenham and has no Grand National experience although does look to be well handicapped.

 

Merry King

Has been tipped up as a big priced outsider but has no Grand National experience and needs to prove his stamina.

 

Shutthefrontdoor

Is possibly too inexperienced having only had 6 chase runs and never ran in the National before. He is also only 8 years old so there are a few stats against this favourite who in my view is too short in the betting at just 7/1

 

And finally, 2014’s winner

Pineau De Re

Well I wouldn’t say he can’t win but he ran at Cheltenham and can he really emulate the great Red Rum and win two in a row at 12 years old? Never say never as far as the Grand National is concerned!

 

Now to my top 10 selections based on the above stats including some that only just fail to meet every criteria but are just too good to overlook.

 

1 – Rocky Creek (10/1)

This horse fits all the criteria of a National winner. It is due to carry 11st 3lbs. Is aged 9. Has a handicap rating of 154. It was placed last year in the National and has never fallen in its career. Rocky Creek should also cope well with any going from Good through to Soft. It is a short price at 10/1 but well worth it in my opinion.

 

2 – Soll (25/1)

Also matching all criteria. Carrying 10st 2lbs. Aged 10. With a handicap rating of 139. Soll has Grand National experience and has never fallen. This horse enjoys G/S ground best. Odds are too big at 25/1 in my opinion.

 

3 – Chance Du Roy (40/1)

Again fitting the key trends. Carrying 10st 4lbs. Aged 11 with a handicap rating of 141. He has lots of experience of the Aintree fences and has only suffered one career fall. He copes with all ground from Good through to Soft. Massive price at 40/1.

 

4 – Saint Are (33/1)

Statistically a possible winner too. Carrying 10st 6lbs. Aged 9. Handicap rating of 143. Has Grand National experience. He runs well at Aintree and goes on a variety of ground. He has suffered 3 career falls. Again, Massive in my opinion at 33/1.

 

5 – Alvarado (25/1)

Ticking all the boxes at 10yrs old, carrying 10st 3lbs and having a handicap rating of 140. He was placed in last year’s Grand National but has suffered 3 career falls. He goes well on G/S ground. Another good value price at 25/1.

 

6 – Balthazar King (12/1)

This horse hasn’t run since last November but goes well fresh. He has had 3 career falls but has Grand National experience, Fits the weight stat at 11st 2lbs and is aged 11. He has a handicap rating of 153. He goes well on G/F and Good ground but might not like it too soft. I think he has a very good chance at 12/1.

 

7 – Oscar Time (50/1)

Fits every statistic except for age. At 14, He is likely to be overlooked as a winner but is a place banker in my opinion. A horse aged 15, Peter Simple won in 1853. He will go on most ground. Get on at 50/1!!!

 

8 – Spring Heeled (20/1)

Fits all criteria except he lacks Grand National experience. This horse would also prefer good going but this horse has been aimed at this race by its shrewd trainer and should be considered at 20/1.

 

9 – Night In Milan (40/1)

Has no National experience but is a good jumper and should relish this test. He will prefer good ground but is one to be interested in at 40/1.

 

10 – Godsmejudge (20/1)

Has everything going for him but lacks Aintree big fence experience. He is still a good price though at 20/1. He prefers Good-G/S ground.

 

I am expecting the going to be Good/Good to Soft/Soft but if it is heavy you should not leave Wyck Hill or Goonyella out of your calculations at 40/1 and 25/1 respectively.

Especially Wyck Hill who has no negatives against him whatsoever except for the expected ground conditions. Goonyella may not even get a run and may not have the class associated with a national winner but he has potential and ticks a lot of boxes.

 

Best Bets
On current prices and assuming expected conditions, these are my top 4 value bets:

Soll – 25/1 Ladbrokes
Saint Are – 33/1 Bet365
Night in Milan – 40/1 Ladbrokes
Oscar Time – 50/1 Bet365

 

Whoever you pick, may the Betting gods be with you and enjoy the race. Good Luck!!

Remember that BetVictor are paying 6 places on the National and are also Non-Runner, No Bet. If you don’t already have an account sign up now and will also get a £25 bonus.

 

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