Bundesliga Betting

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Bundesliga Betting

Postby Brian » Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:08 pm

I've been desperate for my football fix so have taken up watching the only major European league that is active at the moment, the German Bundesliga. I'm very much a newbie to this league having only really watched Bayern Munich and Dortmund previously.

Betting on it has gone quite well so far. There's been some decent value away wins which I'm always looking to back, especially when there are no home fans!

I've created a new football profile 'Soccer King' which will be used for all the footy leagues I begin to cover. It's in profit so far and aim to keep it that way :D
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Re: Bundesliga Betting

Postby Brian » Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:16 pm

19:30:00 - Fixture: Freiburg v Mgladbach
Freiburg (4.9) The Draw (4.2) Mgladbach (1.77)


I can't tell you too much about these teams as yet, although Gladbach were impresisve in their 4-1 win again Union Berlin last time out. Freiburg have had 8 draws in their 29 league matches and although they have been disappointing of late, a couple of losses have been by the odd goal.

My shots model has Freiburg as the value selection at nearly 4/1 (Model makes them 3.71) and with Mgladbach odds on that looks correct to me. I'm looking to lay Mgladbach to start with and I'm also backing Marcus Thuram (son of world cup winner Lillian) to have more than 2.5 shots in the game at 1.9.
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Re: Bundesliga Betting

Postby Brian » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:30 pm

After weathering the storm in the first half it's Freiburg and the value play that wins the day :D

Here are the odds for my shots model with recommended bets for the rest of the weekend in the Bundesliga:

Eintracht Frankfurt (2.12) The Draw (3.85) Mainz (3.65) - Overround is 100.54%
2020-06-06 14:30:00 - Fixture: Ein Frankfurt v Mainz
Best home: 2.12 Model Odds: 2.27
Best away: 3.65 Model Odds: 3.03
Best draw: 3.85 Model Odds: 4.37
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.08)

Fortuna Dusseldorf (2.84) The Draw (3.7) Hoffenheim (2.6) - Overround is 100.7%
2020-06-06 14:30:00 - Fixture: Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim
Best home: 2.84 Model Odds: 2.99
Best away: 2.6 Model Odds: 2.35
Best draw: 3.7 Model Odds: 4.16
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.07)

RB Leipzig (1.16) The Draw (10) Paderborn (26) - Overround is 100.05%
2020-06-06 14:30:00 - Fixture: RB Leipzig v Paderborn
Best home: 1.16 Model Odds: 1.8
Best away: 26 Model Odds: 4.56
Best draw: 10 Model Odds: 4.47
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.19)

Leverkusen (6.4) The Draw (5.4) Bayern Munich (1.51) - Overround is 100.37%
2020-06-06 14:30:00 - Fixture: Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Best home: 6.4 Model Odds: 3.71
Best away: 1.51 Model Odds: 2.03
Best draw: 5.4 Model Odds: 4.22
BET ON HOME (Kelly Stake: 0.13)

Dortmund (1.4) The Draw (5.6) Hertha Berlin (8.6) - Overround is 100.91%
2020-06-06 17:30:00 - Fixture: Dortmund v Hertha
Best home: 1.4 Model Odds: 2.69
Best away: 8.6 Model Odds: 2.71
Best draw: 5.6 Model Odds: 3.84
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.29)

Werder Bremen (3.85) The Draw (3.7) Wolfsburg (2.1) - Overround is 100.62%
2020-06-07 12:30:00 - Fixture: Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg
Best home: 3.85 Model Odds: 3.98
Best away: 2.1 Model Odds: 2.04
Best draw: 3.7 Model Odds: 3.87
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.03)

Union Berlin (2.54) The Draw (3.3) Schalke 04 (3.25) - Overround is 100.44%
2020-06-07 14:30:00 - Fixture: Union Berlin v Schalke 04
Best home: 2.54 Model Odds: 3.24
Best away: 3.25 Model Odds: 2.36
Best draw: 3.3 Model Odds: 3.73
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.17)

Augsburg (2.94) The Draw (3.65) FC Koln (2.58) - Overround is 100.17%
2020-06-07 17:00:00 - Fixture: Augsburg v FC Koln
Best home: 2.94 Model Odds: 3.34
Best away: 2.58 Model Odds: 2.21
Best draw: 3.65 Model Odds: 4.04
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.11)
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Re: Bundesliga Betting

Postby Brian » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:40 pm

Werder Bremen (3.85) The Draw (3.7) Wolfsburg (2.1) - Overround is 100.62%
2020-06-07 12:30:00 - Fixture: Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg
Best home: 3.85 Model Odds: 3.98
Best away: 2.1 Model Odds: 2.04
Best draw: 3.7 Model Odds: 3.87
BET ON AWAY (Kelly Stake: 0.03)


A tight game but if anyone was going to nick it, it was Wolfsburg. Only small value in those odds though.

The model is profitable for most of the last 4 seasons for the top European leagues but rather than play every match I use it a s a starting point or to back up my thinking. For the big teams v small teams I prefer to bet on the small team with a handicap head start even if there's a lot of value in the match odds e.g. Hertha versus Dortmund yesterday.
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