Will i be TIPPING next year2021?

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Will i be TIPPING next year2021?

Postby Dynamite21 » Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:06 am

...
Image

Hi Brian,

......at least 25 of these followers have chosen to follow me within the last few months.
Admitedly i have not done too great this year, but i hope to do a lot better next year.

This will require me working like a DOG and sweat BLOOD.
+200 point Target

"currently i lack the necessary motivation / incentive and feedback to make this HAPPEN!"
(WE NEED TO TALK BEFORE I WALK...)
the potential is there for all too :shock: see

D21 :|

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

looks like i am TIPPING (! hardball !)

Postby Dynamite21 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:28 pm

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Obtaining Value for Every Bet???

Value” has been very much the buzz word over the last few decades, but what does it mean? Well, my definition is simple:
A value bet is a bet struck at a price that you consider is greater than the horse’s chance of winning

Let’s face it, if you could magically measure the precise chance of a horse winning a race then cleaning out the bookies would be no problem! You would simply back horses at bigger price than their chance ofwinning. In the real world, of course, the skill lies in calculating as best as possible a horse’s true chance of winning a race – no easy task!

Don’t Back Value Alone
This to me is a critical point. Value theorists will say that you should not back horses you think will win, but horses that are priced greater than their chance of winning. This is a nice idea in theory but it could lead you down the track of backing endless 33-1 shots that you think should be 25-1. With the inevitable losing runs of twenty, thirty, forty or more, i hate to think what state of your confidence (let alone your bank balance) would be in! The idea only works when you have a supremely accurate way of measuring up price available against probability of winning. It is all mathematically sound but basically unrealistic.

Value Pricing
So let’s start putting the horse before the cart. You must be convinced that every horse you back has an excellent chance of winning the race in question. To me this is absolutely fundamental. At this stage you can apply a Minimum Price to your selection. Now there is no simple way of calculating a Minimum Price; i believe that this all comes with experience and getting a “feel” for a particular horse’s chance, but i think that everyone who thinks a horse will win a certain race can give you some idea of the price he would be willing to back it at. I would strongly recommend that you study form without any forecast SP as this is an excellent discipline for mentally “pricing up” a race (as well as stopping you being influenced by the forecast prices beforehand). Finally, berealistic about your Minimum Price. As i am attracted to horses with good chances of winning, mine are generally quite low (i don’t often knock out an odds-against horse on the grounds of price). But if you are constantly demanding a Minimum Price of 8-1 about your ultra-confident selections, you may not have too many bets in a season!

If you cannot get any value Morning prices or cannot be at the races or in the bookies to check the pre-race prices on your selection, you will be “betting blind” at SP. As this may be the case for many of you, i recommend you use a trusted betting forecast (i find the Racing Post best) to determine whether your bet will be available at or above the Minimum Price. In effect not infallible but is an acceptable compromise.

Here then are the golden rules for value betting:

1. BASED ON THE FORM STUDY FOR YOUR SELECTION’S RACE SET A MINIMUM PRICE THAT YOU WOULD BE PREPARED TO BACK THE SELECTION AT.

2. NEVER, EVER BACK YOUR SELECTIONS AT A LOWER PRICE THAN YOUR MINIMUM.

This simple idea cuts out these two dogmatic approaches:

a) Feeling you must back a horse because it’s a “value price” even though you have little confidence in it winning.

b) Backing a horse no matter how short the price because you are confident it will win.

Stick to these two rules and you will always back horses you are confident in, at prices you feel happy with. That’s real value.

fini…

***(first draft)***

inspired by author…
___(Dennis Wilson)___

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

Will i be TIPPING next year2021?

Postby Dynamite21 » Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:16 pm

...
no wins so far this year...
no real damaged done though
no chance of losing longterm money

D21 8-)
"gained another follower (CHEERS!) ...loyalty will be rewarded"

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

Will i be TIPPING next year2021?

Postby Dynamite21 » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:03 am

...
there will be PLENTY of tips on
***SATURDAY 23jan21***

D21 :?

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am


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