Market Movers

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Market Movers

Postby Brian » Fri May 27, 2016 2:34 pm

I'm sure you will have seen our follow the money page from the Tipster Table dropdown which shows the amounts of money matched on betfair for horses in races in the next 48 hours. Hopefully you find it useful but I'm hoping to improve on this by sending out alerts when there have been significant moves on the exchange.

So far, I am monitoring the prices every 5 minutes and if a horses price has come in by 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% or greater it will send out an alert.

At the moment it's generating a lot of alerts and some of the higher prices originally recorded might not have been significant because the market was not well formed (overround high) and the amounts offered were low (less than £20).

What I aim to do is improve the criteria by narrowing down the overrounds and liquidity as well as find optimal percentages to decrease the amounts of alerts further. Once we've done that we can look at certain time periods before the off and possibly race types too.

I am just wanting to know if this interests anybody at this stage and whether they have any ideas for criteria.


The alerts are sent in the following format currently:

14:30 Bath 27th May - 1m Hcap -> The odds on Believe It have moved by 5% or more today!

The highest available price to back today has been 9.60 (recorded at 13:55) and the price now is 6.2 (recorded at 14:15).

There was £3.82 available to back at 9.60 and there is now £108.71 available at 6.2.

The overround for the highest record price was 102.04 and the current overround for this market is 102.23.
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Market Movers

Postby Dynamite21 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:52 am

Hi Brian,

your Market Movers are showing excellent results... if this is a longterm trend it's a money tree. Being able to shine some light on reason for the odds slide would add stability and belief to the bet.

This would be one way to distill the number of selections, thus reducing the losing runs, increasing confidence and strike rate. Only advising movers that have some supporting logic associated with it. The amount of daily bets seems too daunting at the moment.

1. Prominent Tipsters has flagged this one up. (...eg Hugh Taylor) (BET... but would need to ok value)
2. Jockey has had a couple of winners and bookies are mindful of their liabilities. (NO BET)
3. Tipped by a 4 or 5 Star BettingTools tipster. (BET)
4. ?
5. ?
etc.

8-) D21
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Re: Market Movers

Postby Brian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:25 pm

Cheers Dynamite, they are surpassing my expectations currently but you raise an important point about following. There are a lot of selections and they are often posted very late.

I think it's best to only back these if you are watching the whole day's racing and are literally waiting for these to come through.

An even better alternative is to set them up using betsender like Kalatari has done and you can sit back and relax!

I'd love to reduce the selections down further and be able to identify why the move has happened but most of the time I don't know tbh.
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Re: Market Movers

Postby kev27 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:29 am

Hi Brian, I have just started to get into your Follow the money tool, and i am finding it very useful in finding possible fav winners, I check the fields about 4 am and then again about 12 am to see how the markets have changed. The Betfair graphs is one area i would like to see an improvement in. Would it be possible to create new graphs including time periods and an ability to magnify the chart so that price moves and volume of money are more visible at certain time periods.

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