Betting Advice and Analysis

Wisdom of the crowd

Crowd

One of the reasons that the tips on our site have done so well historically is because we have a good group of knowledgeable people all giving their opinions on the racing day in and day out. No tipster is always right and if one gets a particular race wrong, another tipster may have it right. The more opinions given on an event the more likely you are to find the winner and the more accurately priced a market is. The betting markets reflect the opinions of the market as a whole and includes the views of every professional punter, recreational punter, trader, bookmaker and your nan who likes the name.

I was recently reminded of the wisdom of the crowd effect when asked to guess how many sweets were in a jar which was a game used to raise money for Children in need. I remembered learning that the average of all the guesses is usually extremely accurate to the real figure. Joseph Buchdal has also written a lot about the wisdom of the crowds and has even used data from certain bookmakers to create tipping selections thtat have proved profitable over the long-term.

Some people focus their betting solely on what is being backed, following the money basically. This is in effect utilising the wisdom of the crowds methodology. We’ve trialed certain blanket strategies doing something similar with our market movers and on the nose strategies and have had some success. I think strategies like this can be improved further by filtering further and focusing on races that have decent prize money, high-profile trainers/jockeys involved and making sure you get the best market price of course (we list using betfair exchange).

I was interested to discover that some bookies are starting to provide a feed of betting activity from their customers so that other bettors can easily see what is being backed. BetBright are one of these and they have all the real-time betting activity of bets and how many people have backed them appearing in their betfeed. I think this is a good idea and is interesting if nothing else. I can certainly see other bookies following suit. It would be better if you could see the actual stakes used too but I can’t see anyone willing to provide that information to be honest.

Obviously there comes a point where the wisdom of the crowd is built into the market and also a point where this wisdom has gone past the point of value. So if you are trying to follow the money try to get on when you spot the move as early as possible. It may seem like certain horses are supposed to win, particularly those backed in late but no individual selection is guaranteed to win and it still must be about turning a profit over the longer term.

 

 

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