Betting Advice and Analysis

Why draws are best

It was a good week for prem profits after landing 2 draws at the weekend and the weekly ROI standing at 11.44%. Still not quite enough to see us back in the green but I’m confident it won’t be long! See updated sheet here:  http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx The Liverpool v Everton draw was not unexpected but the 2-2 a tad lucky esp with Suarez having a legitimate goal chalked off but the 0-0 between Stoke and Sunderland was very predictable and justified the low draw price. There were also wins at short prices for Man City and Tottenham but the draws were what made the difference.
It’s often said that draws are the best result for a bookmaker because the least amount of money is on this selection and that sometimes the draw price will be bumped up to try and attract money but a lot of things are said in betting and football and I decided to see just how true this one and the facts were very interesting. Below shows the average best draw price and the actual draw percentage for each season. Where the percentage at the bookies is less than the actual draw percentage we can make a profit and it turns out that if you backed the draw at the best available price pre-match you would have made a profit in 4 out of the last 5 premier league seasons with the one loss being only 0.05%! No wonder Cassini finds it so easy to find value with his draw selections! Obviously his prices are taken from  those on betfair but I would expect the results to be pretty similar.

 

Season Avg Home Odds % Actual Home % Diff
2002/03 48.1 45.01 -3.09
2003/04 47.44 45.29 -2.15
2004/05 46.82 45.3 -1.52
2005/06 46.74 44.46 -2.28
2006/07 46.94 46.04 -0.9
2007/08 46.78 44.75 -2.03
2008/09 46.16 45.03 -1.13
2009/10 46.67 45.7 -0.97
20010/11 46.61 45.39 -1.22
20011/12 46.75 44.47 -2.28
Avg Away Odds % Actual Away % Diff
2002/03 29.89 26.69 -3.2
2003/04 30.38 26.35 -4.03
2004/05 29.78 26.95 -2.83
2005/06 29.99 27.26 -2.73
2006/07 30.21 28.13 -2.08
2007/08 29.92 28.07 -1.85
2008/09 29.68 27.94 -1.74
2009/10 30.47 27.4 -3.07
20010/11 29.11 27.49 -1.62
20011/12 29.62 28.78 -0.84
Avg Draw Odds % Actual Draw % Diff
2002/03 28.76 28.3 -0.46
2003/04 28.6 28.36 -0.24
2004/05 28.51 27.75 -0.76
2005/06 27.83 28.27 0.44
2006/07 27.89 25.83 -2.06
2007/08 26.96 27.18 0.22
2008/09 27.08 27.03 -0.05
2009/10 25.82 26.9 1.08
20010/11 26.36 27.12 0.76
20011/12 25.59 26.75 1.16

*Analysis of data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk/

As you can see backing the home win offers the next best returns (albeit a loss) after the draw and the away odds offer the least value in general.
I also decided to see how the overround looked for the summation of the best prices available for each of the 3 outcomes and here’s what I found:
Season Avg Overround
2002/03 106.75
2003/04 106.42
2004/05 105.11
2005/06 104.55
2006/07 105.04
2007/08 103.65
2008/09 102.92
2009/10 102.97
20010/11 102.08
20011/12 101.96
*Analysis of data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk/We can see that the overround is decreasing year on year, no doubt due to the increased competition in bookmaking and the exchanges but also perhaps because bookmakers are more confident than ever in the accuracy of their prices with the aid of clever computer programs. It could even be that the bookies realise that they don’t need much (if any) overround to profit from most punters due to their haphazard staking and chasing habits. Either way it’s good to see the overround for the summation best prices not far off 100% and in theory it means it should be easier than ever before for the shrewd punter to profit from betting on the premier league.

 

So if you want to bet on a premier league match but are not sure where the value lies, go for the draw. If you don’t see a draw happening then back the home team as the away team are likely to be the poorest value selection.
2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Cassini

    November 1, 2012 at 12:22 am

    "No wonder Cassini finds it so easy to find value with his draw selections!" Easy?!! After five years and several hours of data input / output each week, I wouldn't say it was "easy", but I do find it easier to find value in the draw price than in other bets. The losing runs that are inevitable with draw betting can get uncomfortable, but if you stick with it, a winning run makes up for losses fast. Just look at Drawmaster for a recent example.

  2. Brian

    November 1, 2012 at 12:12 pm

    Haha, I wrote that with tongue in cheek, in the aim of getting a rise from the great man himself… Goal achieved!

    Yes quite often the bets that have some of the longest losing streaks show the best profits long term.. Laying low odds too for example. I guess as long as you stake accordingly and keep the faith (easier said than done) it's ok.

    I'm tempted to focus on the draw myself… I'm 5 from 9 so far where I've seen value in the draw tfor the prem this season!

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