Betting Advice and Analysis

Value in Short Prices

I know value has been talked about to death both on this blog and elsewhere and any experience bettor will know all about it but following on from my post about how much better trading can be in terms of paying less commission as opposed to making value bets and winning much more infrequently, I thought I’d mention something else which I have found recently.
I have demonstrated on many occasions that there is better value to be found on longer priced selections i.e. those that are not massive favourites but either slight underdogs or the draw odds ect. This is because they are harder to price up and less assured money is risked on these so the bookmaker doesn’t have to reduce the margin too much either. The trouble with these selections though is that you never quite now how big your longest losing streak will be or how many parts to split your bank into to be comfortable. If you are to lose half your bank as is easily possible betting at above evens then are you confident enough to continue with your bets/strategy. You also invest a lot of mental energy in following your bets and whilst you may be still well up after 50 straight winners and then followed by 40 straight losers, those 40 straight losers are going to hit you hard when you look at what might have been and where the bank was – this is only natural.
It’s for this reason that I have recently started favouring much shorter priced selections in my bets to compliment my trading. You have to be careful as it’s harder to find an edge but these can still be very valuable. Not because you have a greater edge in these bets, as on average this is statistically not likely but it’s because mathematically you know what to expect with these, there is less uncertainty and there will be very few losing streaks and along with trading it’s easier to turn a small bank into a large one. Sometimes value is not just about the percentage of the edge but the variance with that bet too. People should never be afraid of backing short prices that they think offer value, as backing these can make all the difference to your bottom line. Just don’t use a ridiculous percentage of your bank as this is where most go wrong.
The tennis trading and bets have been very good so far. The staying awake an extra couple of hours each night is taking its toll on me a bit though. Roll on tennis in normal hours!
I’ve finished the little spare time project that I hinted at a couple of weeks back and I will now be posting my drawfinder tips and some others on my new site Tipster Table from now on.  I’ve got a few others involved already and the Legendary Cassini from GreenAllOver has also expressed an interest!

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. SoccerDude

    January 18, 2013 at 7:17 pm

    Don't know if you've ever read Fixed Odds Sports Betting by Joeseph Buchdahl, but in it he carries out an extensive study of the 1X2 odds to determine which attracts least overround.

    Perhap surprisingly, it is the strong home favourite that carries the least overround and so could be said to be the "better value". We have to be careful, don't we, that we fall for the old trap of thinking large odds equate to value.

    Good post and good blog. Cheers

  2. Brian

    January 22, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    Thanks SoccerDude, interesting stuff indeed.

    I've heard about that book but never actually read it. I have some Amazon vouchers though so might just get it!

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