It’s a fact of betting that your bets need to be of value for you to profit. This basically means that on average the bets you take must come in more times than the odds suggest. So if you bet at evens you need to be right more than 50% of the time to have a chance of profiting. Whilst this is great in the long-term it can be very frustrating in the short-term as other recent bloggers have recently stressed. For example, the master of the blog and in play trading specialist Cassini tipped up under 2.5 goals on twitter the other day in the Tottenham v Newcastle match and there were 4 goals in the first 35 minutes. Fortunately, good bettors’ long term results speak for themselves but it’s still very frustrating and makes you look like you don’t know your stuff, when in actual fact that might not be and in this case not true at all. For the record Cassini a la Twitter was back to winning ways on Sunday with his under 2.5 bet in the Villa v Man City game which looked like having few goals right from the start and his value lay of city very close to coming in too.
In all matches there is a chance that x will happen. If it can happen it will as they say. It might only be a 1 in a hundred chance and you might well be on at odds that give you a huge edge on it not happening but it can and will still happen. Also frustrating is when you price up a match very similar to the market. You think a selection is of slight value but is it enough to bet. My spread sheet revealed a few of these ‘opportunities’ this weekend. For example, one of our bets was the draw between Man United and Liverpool. Now I have actually been very impressed with United recently and did expect them to win so I was in a bit of a dilemma when the sheet told me a draw was our best bet, based on the odds available and my % predictions. I was actually a bit disappointed but there should be no bias in these % estimations, it’s not about who you think will win and making sure that you get a bet on them whatever the price because at some point the price will no longer be value.
If I strongly fancy Man United to win next week and they are 1.2 at home to Liverpool, I would be stupid to bet at this price because statistically Man United don’t win 83% of the time at home to teams like Liverpool and I won’t make profit in the long-term. It’s tempting to say that I shouldn’t bet when the odds are so close to those of the market especially when %’s are very hard to estimate accurately and a slight change in thought of a % or 2 could change the bet form one team to the other. However, we must trust our selections and have faith that we will price up matches more accurately than the market over the long-term and also remember that a good bettor takes all bets he believes he has an advantage over no matter how big or small. The majority of punters money will have been on United and I think I am more likely to make money opposing them in these circumstances too.
If we were betting using Kelly, our bet would have been much smaller as indicated on the sheet and so being so close to the market prices doesn’t matter so much as either way we won’t lose money but at level stakes it’s obviously a little more problematic. Level stakes are currently doing better than the Kelly comparison and this could mean that our prices aren’t accurate enough but we are seemingly still finding value because we are in profit. I also think that with Kelly people tend to overestimate the chances of the shorter and more likely selections and the longer priced selections provide more opportunity for value. I think it’s also down to the fact that there are more unknowns and uncertainties at these juicier prices and less money on them so the odds are more likely to be value.
Anyway, I’m rambling a bit now but finding value and choosing stakes are the most important aspects of betting and something that I’m always questioning and looking to improve. Speaking of finding value, Betfred are offering all new customers a free £10 bet with no deposit required! It’s hard to turn that down but if you’ve got more cash to spare, deposit and bet £50 and they will match your bet with a free £50 bet! Lay off the bets on betfair and you can guarantee yourself a risk free £30-40 here, depending on what odds you bet at. Click the link below to get your free cash.
Despite United’s win and all but 1 of the other results going against us on Saturday, we managed to recover successfully on Sunday and finished up with a not so dramatic -5.9% ROI to leave us still with 17.73% ROI overall . If a couple of late goals at the stadium of light and at Bolton hadn’t gone in we would have been in a lot of profit but on the other hand if Man City hadn’t managed to break the deadlock at Villa our losses would have been more significant. So you can see the fine margins we are dealing with here. As you can see from the below the overall results are still looking good.
Week 1 –> 55.20 Units profit (55.2% ROI)
Week 2 –> 59.90 Units profit (59.9% ROI)
Week 3 –> -41.80 Units profit (-46.44% ROI)
Week 4 –> 19.50 Units profit (19.5.% ROI)
Week 5 –> -5.9 Units profit (-5.9% ROI)
Overall –> 86.90 Units profit (17.73.% ROI)
Finally, I must say I’m pleased that the racism stuff seems to have been put to bed now. Whilst it provided a bit of entertainment for a while and debate around the handshake debacle, I am glad we can stop talking about it now and get back to the football, starting with the return of the champions’ league!