As you’ve probably seen from older blog posts on this site, I like to dabble in a spot of in play tennis trading from time to time, generally laying low and backing higher to get some big profits from small risk. It’s very difficult to compete in-play these days, with bots and courtsiders looking to exploit every slightly incorrect price but there is a sound method that still works well for many sports.
This is of course, laying a strong favourite who’s got off to an excellent start but where there is plenty of time left in the match. This is likely to provide value for the following reasons.
1) Strong favourites are easy to price up and there’s usually little value either backing or laying prematch, so if you can get a lower price when the majority of the event is still to play, you are likely to be getting value.
2) If the favourite has got off to a good start, this reaffirms what the market believed would happen and there will be bettors keen to back them, potentially pushing the price lower than it should be.
3) With plenty of time left, freak things like injury can still occur in your favour.
4) The strong favourite can become complacent and think that the match has been won already.
5) Often strong favourites have a mentality that enables them to see off players/teams with comparable quality who don’t quite have that but this means there will be periods when the opponent/opposition will compete well at some point in the match.
6) Players and teams often perform better when losing. It’s mentally easier to not want to lose something than it is to cope with the pressure of winning and the potential failure of not doing so.
As well as tennis, football can be a good sport to attempt this strategy. Once a team is one or two goals up the tendency is for them to protect what they have rather than to keep pushing for more goals and this can make them more likely to concede.
Other sports like racing are too fast to trade manually in-play and although there are some huge profits to be made, you’ll probably need some betting software to allow you to compete successfully.
You don’t necessarily have to trade out and may want to let the lays run. This potentially could be more profitable but it’ll be frustrating when the odds move massively in your favour and still go on to lose. It’s likely that you’ll get fewer swings in profit and losses by trading out, thus helping t keep you sane!
Laying a strong favourite who is winning early on won’t work every time and you’ll have to accept long losing streaks at times. When you find a few winning trades it can also make you believe that it’s all to easy and you may be tempted to start laying everything short. It’s important to ask why you are laying it and to asses the desire of the losing team. Ultimately the key to making any successful strategy pay is patience and sensible staking.