It’s that time of the year again. Mid February, heading into March, and the horse racing scene is about to get very unpredictable in terms of results.
It’s always around this time of the year where the results start to go a bit crazy, horses that should win don’t, and horses that should have no chance suddenly bolt up at big odds. It’s a bookies dream this time of the year! They lay as many shorties as possible, and look for outsiders to make up their profits by turning over the favoured horses at the shorter end of the market.
It’s the changing of the seasons!
I was up this morning at 6.30 and went outside to watch the sunrise over the beautiful Cornish landscape and it was glorious! The sun was shining, there was a frost on the ground, the birds were singing, and the daffodils have started to flower… Spring is on the way.
For horses the change of seasons is important. Those who have been campaigned fairly steadily through the Autumn and Winter months start to feel the effect, and those who have been campaigned lightly, and who have now got better ground, find opportunities to win (often at decent odds), so as punters we need to keep this in mind now.
It’s that time of the year where the form book starts to go out the window. Shorties who would have bolted up, suddenly find themselves getting turned over. Fancied horses underperform – and over the next 6 or so weeks everything will just seem to go a bit crazy.
We have Cheltenham coming up soon, then the Grand National, and then suddenly Flat Racing starts and all those horses coming through at that point into a whole new realm of racing opportunity will make for some great betting opportunities – it’s a time to look for real value, but it’s not always easy to find as often the information is dated, sometimes deliberately inaccurate, and basically you have to turn to intuition a lot over this period, read between the lines, look for outstanding stats, and generally be very vigilant as to what is happening in the market.
This is the one time of the year where the market can often be a good guide to the chances of a horse running well. Anything opening at big odds, then suddenly gets punted, should be looked at carefully now.
If I was a shorty backer right now I would be taking a holiday to be honest – the consequences of continuing to back shorties through the next 4-6 weeks at most meetings could have an adverse affect on the betting bank – and not in a good way!
It’s already started… more and more now the short priced ones are being turned over with great frequency. The bookies love it! But for punters it is a disaster – if you insist on betting at short prices, you really need to be absolutely sure that the odds are in your favour and not the bookies now.
If you have any doubt as to what I am saying here, just take a look at my BV Select System Lay Graphs – they are suddenly on the upward move with the shorties losing with great frequency. And in effect, when they are short and on my Select System list, they are not only the best horse in the race on the stats, but also the lowest price on the tissue. They should win, but they are being turned over at ridiculously short odds most of the time.
If ever you needed to ensure your selection is running for you, and not the bookie, now is the time! Ignore this warning at your peril.
The best and most profitable price point for handicaps, even through this period, is that sweet spot between 9/2 and 14/1. This is where the most winners will be found over the coming weeks – unless something is running in a 1 horse race at better than evens, stay away from backing shorties. Go each way on something at bigger odds to hit the frame or hopefully turn the favourite over if the price is short.
Remember, horses are not machines, they are unpredictable creatures, and like all animals they have a sense of knowing what’s happening around them. Nature tells them it’s getting close to the end of the season, or close to the start of the season. They pick it up in the air they breathe, in the grass they eat, in the flowers they see. They might appear stupid at times, but they know! And the fact they know is good reason to be wary right now at short odds!
Doom and gloom stuff there BV… well, only if you back shorties! If you like to look for value, and are willing to take a chance on a few at bigger odds this time of the year then it could be an absolute gold mine!
Every race has an opportunity – an angle to punt at value odds. You just have to choose your races carefully and look for the opportunities, they are there in most instances. It could be a big price one that is showing a low tissue price, it could be a good each way bet at mid range odds, it could be a decent forecast if you fancy a shortie and a biggie in the same race.
Every race has an opportunity to profit, it is just a matter of finding the angles now, exploiting them at good odds, and taking advantage of the change of season to make some good profits from horse racing in what will be a very tumultuous period for the next 6 weeks or so.
Until next time…