Betting Advice and Analysis

The gap widens…

We’re now 3 days into the betfair exchange experiment and profits tailed off as expected from day 1 but the important thing is how results compare. So…

Profit backing the tips win only with the bookies: £651.60

Profit backing with betfair exchange: £210.50

When I started this experiment I by no means expected betafir to come out on top but I did expect the gap to be closer. Currently the profits with bookies are over 3 times that of betfair!

We are both happy and can afford to take a bit of hit for having all our bets placed automatically for us but this is too much and we could easily end up at a big loss come the end of the month if we continue like this.

So, how can we close the gap? The most obvious thing that isn’t working is taking betfair start price when the tipster listed odds aren’t available. Betfair start price may well be better than the bookies start price but it’s still never a value proposition it seems.

I initially decided to use betfair start price to mitigate against markets being ill-formed and taking something daft like 1.05 on a horse but the data is showing that overall it will still work out be better to always take the price available when listed.

As you can see from the table below, the difference is prices are huge when Start price is taken. In some cases it won’t be as bad as it looks below because we haven’t taken off the rule 4 reductions from the listed odds but they have been factored into the betfair odds. That said there are too many huge differences even when there are non-runners.

So from now on we’ll revert to placing all bets as soon as they are posted and let’s see if we can close the gap. If we do get any silly early prices we will have to think of another way to mitigate against that, possibly looking at liquidity or checking that they are 90% of the listed price. Possibly even avoiding some selections completely.

Selection Tipster Odds inc BOG Betfair Odds Diff. SP Taken
Wind-> Win Tiercel Big Al 4 3.55 -0.45 N
Wind-> Win Geneva Convention Big Al 6 5.59 -0.41 Y
Ponte-> E/w Shouranour Eagle Eyes 21 5.3 -15.7 Y
Wind-> Win Wild Hacked Pinpoint 7 6.84 -0.16 N
Wind-> Win Wild Hacked Market Movers 5.2 5.2 0 N
Sthl-> E/w Ballyrock Roland65 21 21 0 N
Wind-> Win Glorious Forever ApprenticeJo 4.33 2.73 -1.6 Y
Uttox-> Win Dawnieriver Pinpoint 5.5 2.66 -2.84 N
Uttox-> E/w Cobajayisland Hicko65 7.5 7.13 -0.37 N
Hunt-> Win Presenting Lisa Pinpoint 5 4.5 -0.5 Y
Uttox-> E/w Tantamount Hicko65 8.5 9.4 0.9 N
Tottenham v Man City Holy Grail 3.15 3.1 -0.05 N
Tottenham v Man City Footy Movers 3.2 3.15 -0.05 N
Kelso-> Win Makethedifference Pointage 8 6.42 -1.58 Y
Wolv-> Win Mukaabra Big Al 4.5 3.47 -1.03 Y
Wolv-> Win John T Chance Superted 4.5 5.01 0.51 Y
Newm-> Win Elysian Fields BVSystemBets 11 9.99 -1.01 Y
Ascot-> Win Shamshon Superted 9 6.6 -2.4 Y
Ascot-> Win Shamshon ApprenticeJo 7.5 6.6 -0.9 Y
Redc-> Win Father Bertie Pinpoint 7 7.2 0.2 N
Ascot-> Win Easy Road BettorValue 17 5.55 -11.45 Y
Newm-> E/w Ervedya Dynamite21 5 4.96 -0.04 N
Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze Big Al 6.5 6 -0.5 N
Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze Market Movers 6 6 0 N
Newm-> Win Sharja Queen Big Al 7 6.24 -0.76 N
Newm-> Win Sharja Queen Pinpoint 7 5.91 -1.09 N
Preston v Aston Villa Holy Grail 3.55 3.6 0.05 N
Bolton v Oxford Holy Grail 4 3.75 -0.25 N
Grimsby v Hartlepool Holy Grail 4.5 4.4 -0.1 N
Wycombe v Exeter Holy Grail 2.56 2.46 -0.1 N
Maidstone v Solihull Holy Grail 4 4 0 N
Preston v Aston Villa Footy Movers 3.15 3.6 0.45 N
Northampton v Bristol Rovers Footy Movers 3.15 3.55 0.4 N
Redc-> Win Thello BVSystemBets 11 9 -2 N
Ascot-> E/w Move Up Eagle Eyes 11 9 -2 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up Superted 8.5 8.6 0.1 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up BVSystemBets 9 9 0 N
Ascot-> Win Move Up Market Movers 7 7 0 N

Overall Difference in prices: -44.73 (Deductions on listed odds not included)

Difference in prices for non-start price bets: -8.66

betfair-exchange-experiment-day-3

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