We’re now 3 days into the betfair exchange experiment and profits tailed off as expected from day 1 but the important thing is how results compare. So…
Profit backing the tips win only with the bookies: £651.60
Profit backing with betfair exchange: £210.50
When I started this experiment I by no means expected betafir to come out on top but I did expect the gap to be closer. Currently the profits with bookies are over 3 times that of betfair!
We are both happy and can afford to take a bit of hit for having all our bets placed automatically for us but this is too much and we could easily end up at a big loss come the end of the month if we continue like this.
So, how can we close the gap? The most obvious thing that isn’t working is taking betfair start price when the tipster listed odds aren’t available. Betfair start price may well be better than the bookies start price but it’s still never a value proposition it seems.
I initially decided to use betfair start price to mitigate against markets being ill-formed and taking something daft like 1.05 on a horse but the data is showing that overall it will still work out be better to always take the price available when listed.
As you can see from the table below, the difference is prices are huge when Start price is taken. In some cases it won’t be as bad as it looks below because we haven’t taken off the rule 4 reductions from the listed odds but they have been factored into the betfair odds. That said there are too many huge differences even when there are non-runners.
So from now on we’ll revert to placing all bets as soon as they are posted and let’s see if we can close the gap. If we do get any silly early prices we will have to think of another way to mitigate against that, possibly looking at liquidity or checking that they are 90% of the listed price. Possibly even avoiding some selections completely.
| Selection | Tipster | Odds inc BOG | Betfair Odds | Diff. | SP Taken |
| Wind-> Win Tiercel | Big Al | 4 | 3.55 | -0.45 | N |
| Wind-> Win Geneva Convention | Big Al | 6 | 5.59 | -0.41 | Y |
| Ponte-> E/w Shouranour | Eagle Eyes | 21 | 5.3 | -15.7 | Y |
| Wind-> Win Wild Hacked | Pinpoint | 7 | 6.84 | -0.16 | N |
| Wind-> Win Wild Hacked | Market Movers | 5.2 | 5.2 | 0 | N |
| Sthl-> E/w Ballyrock | Roland65 | 21 | 21 | 0 | N |
| Wind-> Win Glorious Forever | ApprenticeJo | 4.33 | 2.73 | -1.6 | Y |
| Uttox-> Win Dawnieriver | Pinpoint | 5.5 | 2.66 | -2.84 | N |
| Uttox-> E/w Cobajayisland | Hicko65 | 7.5 | 7.13 | -0.37 | N |
| Hunt-> Win Presenting Lisa | Pinpoint | 5 | 4.5 | -0.5 | Y |
| Uttox-> E/w Tantamount | Hicko65 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 0.9 | N |
| Tottenham v Man City | Holy Grail | 3.15 | 3.1 | -0.05 | N |
| Tottenham v Man City | Footy Movers | 3.2 | 3.15 | -0.05 | N |
| Kelso-> Win Makethedifference | Pointage | 8 | 6.42 | -1.58 | Y |
| Wolv-> Win Mukaabra | Big Al | 4.5 | 3.47 | -1.03 | Y |
| Wolv-> Win John T Chance | Superted | 4.5 | 5.01 | 0.51 | Y |
| Newm-> Win Elysian Fields | BVSystemBets | 11 | 9.99 | -1.01 | Y |
| Ascot-> Win Shamshon | Superted | 9 | 6.6 | -2.4 | Y |
| Ascot-> Win Shamshon | ApprenticeJo | 7.5 | 6.6 | -0.9 | Y |
| Redc-> Win Father Bertie | Pinpoint | 7 | 7.2 | 0.2 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Easy Road | BettorValue | 17 | 5.55 | -11.45 | Y |
| Newm-> E/w Ervedya | Dynamite21 | 5 | 4.96 | -0.04 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze | Big Al | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Librisa Breeze | Market Movers | 6 | 6 | 0 | N |
| Newm-> Win Sharja Queen | Big Al | 7 | 6.24 | -0.76 | N |
| Newm-> Win Sharja Queen | Pinpoint | 7 | 5.91 | -1.09 | N |
| Preston v Aston Villa | Holy Grail | 3.55 | 3.6 | 0.05 | N |
| Bolton v Oxford | Holy Grail | 4 | 3.75 | -0.25 | N |
| Grimsby v Hartlepool | Holy Grail | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.1 | N |
| Wycombe v Exeter | Holy Grail | 2.56 | 2.46 | -0.1 | N |
| Maidstone v Solihull | Holy Grail | 4 | 4 | 0 | N |
| Preston v Aston Villa | Footy Movers | 3.15 | 3.6 | 0.45 | N |
| Northampton v Bristol Rovers | Footy Movers | 3.15 | 3.55 | 0.4 | N |
| Redc-> Win Thello | BVSystemBets | 11 | 9 | -2 | N |
| Ascot-> E/w Move Up | Eagle Eyes | 11 | 9 | -2 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Move Up | Superted | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.1 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Move Up | BVSystemBets | 9 | 9 | 0 | N |
| Ascot-> Win Move Up | Market Movers | 7 | 7 | 0 | N |
Overall Difference in prices: -44.73 (Deductions on listed odds not included)
Difference in prices for non-start price bets: -8.66
