Betting Advice and Analysis

Stake Sizes for Betting

The size of your stakes per bet is something which I have mentioned a fair bit recently but this weekend results couple with the aim of more turnover has made me rethink this. I have been using 2% of my bank roll for all my pre-match bets and there was a time I felt this was incredibly conservative but this weekend’s results have made me think otherwise.

To have a chance at being successful in gambling you must make sure you stay in the game even after the most incredible losing run ever. I thought 2% should be ok to achieve this but I now feel I need to spread my bankroll more thinly. As well as making more bets to increase turnover, Saturday proved fruitless as none of my 7 value selections came in and so I was looking at a huge loss. There was not 1 away win despite Swansea and Sunderland coming very close.

To come close to breaking even I needed either a draw at Old Trafford or a win for West Brom at Anfield. I already had Man City to beat Wolves too but at odds of 1.29, that wasn’t going to make up the deficit! Incredibly Man United drew 4-4 despite being 3-1 and 4-2 up. I think the draw was a huge price but in retrospect, probably wasn’t as much value as I initially thought due to the gung-ho attitude of both of the teams. West Brom also sneaked a win at Anfield despite Liverpool missing a hatful of chance and so as unlucky as we were on Saturday with not an away win in site, Sunday’s results more than made up for this and we finished with a weekly return of 52.9% which considering Saturday’s results was incredible.

You may think this is just probability and this kind of ‘lucky’ or ‘unlcuky’ spells are not unusual and it makes sense that the results evened themselves out, to which I would agree but I feel I have to take this as a bit of a warning sign as to what could happen. Up until now I’ve been inputting my percentages firing off money here and there and assured in my head that I will easily get 3 or more results right and end up with a good profit or a small loss but this weekend proved it’s not always the case and at some point I will lose all 10 matches in a weekend, if I do this long enough. That would cost me 20% of my bankroll and another couple of bad weeks and we could be getting close to half the bank gone!

If this were to happen it would be squeaky bum time and I don’t think I could handle this happening too well. It would undo all the hard work I’ve put in and so I’m beginning to think that 1% per bet for all my bets is big enough particularly when you consider I’m hoping to make 50+ bets in total a week. I can now see why people have suggested to me in the past that 0.5% per bet is preferable to them which I previously had dismissed as ridiculous! The more money you can stake on individual bets the better if you have an edge but this figure needs to be repeatable enough times over to cover any losing spells you might have and 2% is looking like it could be a bit too close for comfort despite my good fortune so far.

Here are this weeks results followed by the weekly and monthly summaries:

Home
Away
Selection
Odds
Profit
Arsenal
Wigan
Draw
6
-10.00
Arsenal
Chelsea
Chelsea
3.9
-10.00
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Sunderland
3.3
-10.00
Blackburn
Norwich
Norwich
3.8
-10.00
Bolton
Swansea
Swansea
3.6
-10.00
Fulham
Wigan
Wigan
4.5
-10.00
Newcastle
Stoke
Stoke
5.5
-10.00
QPR
Tottenham
Tottenham
2
-10.00
Man Utd
Everton
Draw
5.5
45.00
Liverpool
West Brom
West Brom
8.5
75.00
Wolves
Man City
Man City
1.29
2.90

Weekly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
1
100
49.44
49.44%
2
100
54.41
54.41%
3
90
-43.21
-48.01%
4
100
15.03
15.03%
5
100
-9.11
-9.11%
6
70
-11.34
-16.19%
7
100
15.50
15.50%
8
90
-14.70
-16.33%
9
90
40.60
45.11%
10
100
-13.00
-13.00%
11
100
29.50
29.50%
12
80
42.70
53.38%
13
100
147.00
147.00%
14
30
-14.30
-47.67%
15
100
52.90
52.90%
TOTAL
1350
341.42
25.29%
Monthly Totals
Week
Units staked
P/L
ROI
January
240
81.64
34.01%
February
320
-26.42
-8.25%
March
450
73.90
16.42%
April
340
212.30
62.44%
May
TOTAL
1350
341.42
25.29%


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