Betting Advice and Analysis

Risk v Reward

I’ve often heard it said that people who only make a small percentage by betting aren’t taking enough risk and whilst it’s true that by taking more risk on higher priced bets that have value that there’ll be more opportunities to make bigger money, the variance on these bets is greater and you have to be patient through long losing spells. By taking the best prices on offer with bookmakers it’s achievable to profit at level stakes no matter what type of odds you go for but by taking odds on events where there is more uncertainty you will have bad losing spells.
I have recently found that my gambling is more suited to steady increases and fewer losses even though my overall profit could potentially be less and so I am going to be concentrating my bets on the lower end of the odds spectrum. Odds on if you like. In general there will be less value at this end of the odds spectrum because they are easier to price up but if you are selective you can still find value and together with achieving the best price (until you get limited) you can make good steady profits. You can also use bigger stakes because the losing streaks are not as bad.
It’s the same story with trading. I have often believed it when people say that if you let your entry trade run and take more risk you would make more profit but I wouldn’t have put such a large stake into the market in the first place if I wasn’t trading. There will also be times where I will get it wrong and endure long losing streaks which I don’t get when trading.
By taking more risk it may be possible to make better returns long term but I’m happy to take less risk from now on and have more consistent returns, knowing what I’m likely to expect. As is often said, do what’s making you the money and forget the rest. So short price favs and tennis trading only from now on for me!
By the way, although I am going to continue the premier league value selections I probably won’t be adding them in a blog post, together with reasoning and screen shots. I haven’t had much feedback about the selections so I feel like it’s a bit of a waste of time. They are showing a profit of just short of 10% though now after a 54% ROI this weekend and I will continue to update the spreadsheet prior to the matches so you can still check them there if you wish.
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