Football

Premier League Selections (Week 7)

I have some bad news regarding the Premier League Value Selections! It turns out that commission wasn’t being accounted for and so the profit is slightly less than what was recorded. This has taken us down from 13.86 to 9.86%. Commission was being used in the Kelly stake calculation but I then had to update the sheet to make sure the profit totals deducted commission again as it wasn’t do this previously. The good news though is that I have been monitoring bookies prices and there is always a better price than Betfair available on these selections when commission is factored in so the 15% is still achievable and possibly more so. I have added a column to the spread sheet called ‘best odds’ which is going to keep track of the best price available on our selection. I have also added a total to keep track of the level stakes profit against these prices.
I haven’t added it for Kelly stakes because the Kelly stakes are worked out against Betfair prices currently and I’m not going to change this. It would be unlikely to actually change who we bet on anyway. The majority of my betting is done on Betfair and stakes are not limited here and so I want to prove that it’s possible on Betfair using big money. It would be unadvisable to start betting random amounts at the bookies too as they have been known to get suspicious and either limit players or close accounts that do this. If you do want to improve profits by betting with the bookies and you are good at managing several different bookies accounts then by all means take the best price available as it will improve profitability further.
So on to this weekend’s action then. Man City look a banker at Bolton but I can’t be backing 1.15 as there is no value long term and the draw looks huge at 10!. Liverpool v Arsenal is an interesting one as both teams fortunes have changed recently with cup success for Liverpool and Arsenal’s great Derby comeback last week. Spurs v Man Utd should be a good game too and I really fancy the professional approach and experience of United to prevail in this one. Here are all the selections:

Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
03-Mar-12
Liverpool
Arsenal
Liverpool
2.1
03-Mar-12
Blackburn
Aston Villa
Blackburn
2.4
03-Mar-12
Man City
Bolton
Draw
9.5
03-Mar-12
QPR
Everton
Everton
2.4
03-Mar-12
Stoke
Norwich
Norwich
4.5
03-Mar-12
West Brom
Chelsea
West Brom
4.33
03-Mar-12
Wigan
Swansea
Swansea
3.1
04-Mar-12
Newcastle
Sunderland
Sunderland
3.75
04-Mar-12
Fulham
Wolves
Fulham
1.62
04-Mar-12
Tottenham
Man Utd
Man Utd
2.5
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