Football

Premier League Selections (Week 6)

So we’ve had a little bit of a break from the Premier League Selections and since then both Arsenal and Chelsea look like going out of the champion’s league. It was to be expected really for these 2, it’s amazing to think the 2 Manchester teams on playing on Thursday nights while these poor teams are still in, well mathematically at least.

I’ve done my % predictions for this week and its incredible how I seem to be getting closer to the markets prices as the weeks go by. There’s 2 ‘No bet’ matches (QPR v Fulham and Stoke V Swansea) which I’m pleased about because I didn’t really have an opinion on either of them and not one selection over 1 unit (out of 10) in terms of the Kelly stakes. That means according to my selections there’s not a huge amount of value but there is some and we hope to profit from it. Worryingly my estimations have told me to back 4 draws! Draws are extremely hard to predict and people don’t like to back them but guess what, they do happen and almost 30% of the time! Because of the reluctance of people to back draws, the prices are usually pretty good and they certainly look very juicy this week with Man City v balckburn at 8.6, Chelsea v Bolton at 6.0 and Norwich v Man Utd at 4.4. Some weeks there are no draws and others there are 5 or 6 but you just have to play the odds and o with the value. It looks like this week could be epic in terms of profit or an epic fail. I can’t see a small profit or loss this week. I really do think it will be drastic whichever way it goes!

I’m reasonably happy with everything the spread sheet told me to bet on this week. I do expect United and City to both win and I gave what I thought was generous estimations to reflect this. But the market obviously has them even shorter than this and for that reason the draws on these games is value. United are away from home against a decent Norwich side and Blackburn have upset a few teams including Arsenal and Man United at Old Trafford and when you have a striker like Yakubu you always have a chance. Football’s a funny old game as they say and some days you just can’t buy a goal or the opposition score early and park the bus. We’ll be very happy if either of these games sees one of these scenarios. One things for sure Man City are 1.2 which means they have to win 9 times out of 10 for you to profit backing at these odds and there’s not going to be much profit to be had (if any) backing teams at these prices in the long term.
See the spreadsheet for Kelly Bets and the results so far: http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx

Home
Away
Odds
Selection
Chelsea
Bolton
6.00
Draw
Newcastle
Wolves
1.61
Newcastle
QPR
Fulham
NONE
West Brom
Sunderland
3.05
Sunderland
Wigan
Aston Villa
3.45
Draw
Man City
Blackburn
8.60
Draw
Arsenal
Tottenham
2.62
Arsenal
Norwich
Man Utd
4.40
Draw
Stoke
Swansea
NONE
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