Football

Premier League ‘Selections’ (Week 5)

I’m made a couple of decisions regarding the Prem Predictions. Firstly, I’m going to rename them Prem Selections. Predictions make sit sounds as though I’m trying to predict the outcome of the matches when this is not really true and if it were I would probably go with the favourites most of the time. Predicting the outcome of individual matches isn’t my concern and I will be more than happy win 3 wins out of 10 every week if it sees us in profit.
The second thing I’ve decided is that I will post all the weekends (Mondays included) selections in the one post. This makes it much easier to follow my progress and means I don’t have to do several updates. I previously thought it would be best to wait until the day or the day before the match when all team news was known but in actual fact it shouldn’t matter because the odds available will be based on the team news available at the time.
Onto this week’s games then and surprise surprise I’ve gone mostly for away results! You could be forgiven for thinking that I have just gone for away results all the time and been lucky that there has been quite a lot away wins recently. However, I decided to do some comparison and just check what the results would have been had I bet on all away wins, all home wins or all draw and these were the results.
ROI
Prem Selections 23.79%
All Draws 19.63%
All Homes 9.23%
All Aways -20.15%

As you can see all away wins would have resulted in the worst results and it does prove that I am being selective. Conversely betting on all home or all draws would have given us a profit, so perhaps there have been too many of both of these recently and it’s a good time to bet on aways! The ROI is currently 23.78, with 92.80 points profit and whilst it’s been a great start our edge is still unproven as a loss on every game this week would wipe out all our profit. Whilst this is unlikely, it’s far from impossible and just shows how early days it is for these ‘selections’. Here is a summary of the results so far:
Week 1 -> 55.20 Units profit (55.2% ROI)
Week 2 –> 59.90 Units profit (59.9% ROI)
Week 3 –> -41.80 Units profit (-46.44% ROI)
Week 4 –> 19.50 Units profit (19.5.% ROI)
Overall –> 92.80 Units profit (23.79% ROI)
Some results scream out draw to you and Bolton v Wigan is one of these, so I was more than happy to see that appear on the sheet after I inputted the Betfair odds. It also tells me to bet draw on the Man Utd Liverpool game and although I think United should edge it, the draw is worth taking at this 3.75.
The Sunderland v Arsenal game is very intriguing. Everyone always says form is key and Sunderland’s form has been incredible recently. If it hadn’t been for Arsenal’s demolition of Blackburn last week, we would definitely have seen a much shorter price on the newly improved home side. It will be interesting to see if Sunderland can keep their run going and this will be a true test of just how far they have come under O’Neill.
The best value away selections are West Brom (away to Wolves) and Man City (away to Aston Villa), I definitely think that Villa are a poor team and Robbie Keane is making the look much better than they really are and so City are a banker for me. West Brom are unlikely to lose against Wolves as Hodgson is a master tactician defensively and Draw No bet would be a good option on this one.
Here are all the selections for this week. For all the Kelly fans check out the excel sheet for more info (http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx ) Good luck with all your bets!
 
Home Away Odds Selection
Man Utd Liverpool 3.75 Draw
Blackburn QPR 3.20 QPR
Bolton Wigan 3.4 Draw
Everton Chelsea 2.34 Chelsea
Fulham Stoke 4.40 Stoke
Sunderland Arsenal 3.9 Sunderland
Swansea Norwich 4.60 Norwich
Tottenham Newcastle 7.80 Newcastle
Wolves West Brom 3.10 West Brom
Aston Villa Man City 1.71 Man City

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