Football

‘Premier League Profits!’

Originally known as ‘premier league predictions’ then ‘premiership value selections’, my premier league tissue prices are back! After the success of them last season (17.88% ROI from 169 bets) and at the risk of jinxing them, I am now going to rename them for the third and hopefully final time and call them ‘Premier League Profits’! It has a great ring to it don’t you think? That’s how confident I am of showing a posit ROI once again come May. J

I won’t be going into massive detail each week about why I have priced them up in such a way but all I will say is that I start with what I consider fair %s for all the selections (45%home 27%away 28% draw) and then I move the out based on form and most importantly the ability of the teams to score goals against each other.
The first 6 games have given me plenty to evaluate the team’s prices now and here is a quick blast of random thoughts on some of the teams so far.
Man United have more goals in them than last season but they are weaker in midfield and defensively especially without Vidic. I expect them to drop more points than usual a t least until they make some new signings in January.
Arsenal have impressed me a lot! They started off struggling for goals but their approach is looking much more professional this season and they’re definitely on the up.
Chelsea are doing ok much like last season. I think they need to improve and add one or two more to challenge Man city but they look solid. City have dawn 3 already but I have been very impressed performance-wise.
Everton have impressed and Moyes appears to have got the team to a new level in his Kaizen type approach. They are good defensively as always but also have goals in Jelavic and also Anichibe and Felaini to some extent. They finished strongly last season and having a settled Jelavic from the start is making a difference.
Liverpool are very much a team in progress and I think Rodgers will get it right given time. He desperately needs additions to compete with the big boys and win those tight games when Suarez is mis-firing but they are very much in a false position right now and will grow in confidence.
QPR have disappointed especially after the big signings they made. They were overrated odds-wise but are being found out now. Southampton have conceded a lot of goals but I’m surprised with their ability to score them too. It does look bleak for them and Norwich but being able to score goals usually serves you better than keeping them out so that’s bad news for teams like Wigan, Reading and QPR. I fear for Villa, I like Lambert but I think they have a very poor squad at the moment.
Allardyce is shrewd and will get the absolute maximum out of his players. They are definitely staying up.
Anyway, here are my selections for this week. Why not have a go yourself. All you need to do is input your percentages, then the odds and the sheet tells you where the value lies based on your estimations of probability. This is by far the most successful way to decide who to bet on and prevents bias, stopping you betting on just who you think will win. We should after all be trying to find value and NOT predict outcomes!
Here’s a link to the sheet for the new season: http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx
Here’s last season’s too incase you didn’t know how good I was ;)http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets_2012_2013.xlsx
Date
Home
Away
Selection
Best Odds
06-Oct-12
Man City
Sunderland
Draw
6.24
06-Oct-12
Chelsea
Norwich
Draw
6.56
06-Oct-12
Swansea
Reading
Draw
3.62
06-Oct-12
Wigan
Everton
Everton
2.03
06-Oct-12
West Brom
QPR
West Brom
1.91
06-Oct-12
West Ham
Arsenal
Arsenal
2.05
07-Oct-12
Southampton
Fulham
Fulham
2.81
07-Oct-12
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Draw
4.71
07-Oct-12
Liverpool
Stoke
Draw
4.56
07-Oct-12
Newcastle
Man Utd
Newcastle
4.33
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