A dream start to last week with 5 wins from 7 on the Saturday at some pretty amazing prizes capped off with Stoke’s win at home to Man Utd. That was all it was to be however after drawing blanks on Sunday and Monday but a return on investment of 86.5% for the weekend was very pleasing. I still felt I was on the right side on West Brom against Liverpool and they did fail to win. Arsenal also found it tough against Palace and at 0-0 half time I’m was happy with that one. Update sheet here.
City on Monday I was less happy with. Stats wise City were a good bet but team news went against me but I also think I failed to foresee that Chelsea were the more motivated team and in hindsight the value was on Chelsea and my percentage estimate on City was too high. It’s very rare I feel that I am on the wrong side even when I’ve lost but I think I will learn from this one.
After last week there is now very little between the returns to level stakes with both over 8% and that of Kelly stakes and it goes to prove that level stakes are very difficult to beat. It’s weeks like this week Kelly staking might prove its worth with lots of short priced favourites. I’m not expecting Chelsea, Man Utd or Man City to lose if I’m honest but the value is in opposing them. Some weeks these big favourites will be beaten and we’ll make a big profit but the value on opposing them is less than on some of the other matches and the stakes smaller. Therefore losses on these 3 games will affect the overall profit and loss much less with Kelly Stakes.
I think there is very good value in backing Arsenal at 3.5 in the lunchtime kick off tomorrow. I can see why Liverpool are favourites especially being at home but the Gunners are unbeaten in their last 8 league games and I think they’re the better team defensively.
West Ham repaid the faith I showed in them after being written off following some hefty losses with a 2-0 win at Swansea last week. It’s now 7 points out of 12 including a draw against Chelsea and I think they have the beating of Aston Villa tomorrow even without the suspended Andy Carroll.
Chelsea are looking very good and with Newcastle mourning the loss of Cabaye it’s going to be very tough for them at Stamford Bridge this weekend. Odds of 1.25 on Chelsea are a bit of an insult to a capable Newcastle however and the Magpies have to be the value play. As mentioned previously it’s the same story for me in the Man City v Norwich and Man Utd v Fulham matches.
Crystal Palace continued their good defensive work in the first half against Arsenal and although they were eventually broken down I fancy their chances against West Brom tomorrow. The odds aren’t as juicy as I was hoping but still worth a bet with West Brom without a win in 3 and Palace gaining 13 points from a possible 18 at Selhurst Park under Pulis.
Southampton look to be back on track with some easier fixtures coming in but let’s not get too carried away with a 3-0 win at Fulham. 1.57 is too short against Stoke who proved they are more than capable after last weeks win against Man United. The Potters are not as impressive away from home but even still, 7.75 is a big price.
Sunderland are one of the form teams at the moment with 3 wins in their last 4. The market knows they’ll most likely beat Hull on Saturday. The value is slightly on Sunderland but it’s so small it’s almost a no bet match for me.
The South Wales derby at Swansea could go either way for me but Cardiff have the greater team spirit evident in their match against Norwich last week and have more of a goal threat now with new signing Kenwyne Jones. The Blues won the reverse fixture and can do the double over manager-less Swansea tomorrow.
Finally, Spurs v Everton on Sunday is an interesting one with 5th playing 6th. Both teams have a lot of quality and are looking for a top four place but I think this a good match up for Everton. The Toffees generally seem to find it sticky against more defensive teams and I’m backing them at 3.75 in this one.
BET OF THE WEEKEND – Cardiff Draw No Bet at 3.5 with SkyBet