Football

Premier League Preview – Week 16

Premier League Preview Week16

It was another week of profit last week making it 4 in a row now. The selections are now showing a profit overall to level stakes and Kelly stakes both with a modest return just short of 5%. The Kelly stakes are actually out-performing the level stakes ever so slightly and this is unusual for me. It means that I’m pricing the games up pretty well on average though and it’ll be interesting to see if this continues.

Man City v Arsenal is  the early game on Saturday and taking into account their home record and the fact that Arsenal struggled against Everton and lost to Napoli in the week,1.83 looks a decent price. Man City have in fact won all 7 of their home games this season.

Cardiff entertain West Brom at the Millenium Stadium and although this one is difficult to call, I do make WBA slight favourites and the value is with them.

How on earth Chelsea are 1.2 coming off a loss to Stoke I don’t know. They may well beat strugglers Crystal Palace but 1.2 is not value. Palace have done well under Pulis with 3 wins from their last 4 and starting with a lay of Chelsea could be a good trade.

Everton host Fulham at Goodison and although I was impressed with them at Arsenal, I still feel they’re a little short. Fulham gave a spirited performance at home to Aston Villa on Sunday and the work ethic will be there again. The draw looks a decent shout at 5.0.

I found the Newcastle v Southampton match difficult to price up. The Saints have exceeded expectations so far this season but have had a small blip in recent weeks. Newcastle’s form on the other hand has perked right up and even without the suspended Cabaye, I have to favour the home side in this one (just).

West Ham are still struggling for goals and Sunderland are improving. West Ham have only managed 1 win in their last 8 matches and so the value has to be on the Black Cats here.

Stoke did well against Chelsea last week but they were a bit lucky. Hull have had some solid performance so far this season and conceded only 3 goals in 7 home matches. I think Stoke will find it tough to break them down.

Onto Sunday and Man United are worth backing against Aston Villa in the early kick off, with the Joe Punter righting them off. Yes, they are falling short of being title contenders but they still have plenty in reserve to ease past Villa (even without the injured Van Persie) who have more than rode their luck this season.

Norwich seem to be on the up and improving and winning 3 of their last 5. 2.88 is a pretty big price for a home side playing against a Swansea side in pretty poor form. The Swans have lost 3 of their last 4 and were lucky to draw against Hull on Monday.

Finally, Tottenham play Liverpool in the 4pm game at White Hart Lane. Spurs are struggling for goals in the Prem and unfortunately for them, the opposition is nowhere near as poor as that in the Europa League. I don’t think Gerrard is as big a miss as people think and with Luis Suarez in hot form odds of 3.00 look very juicy indeed.

 

Bet of the weekend – Norwich to beat Swansea at 2.88 with bet365.

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