Betting Advice and Analysis

Playing the percentages

So the Prem Predictions are 2 weeks in and we’re currently at a whopping 57.55% ROI on level stakes and 39.89% on Kelly Stakes! This means if you’d put £10 on every Premiership League game in the last 2 weeks and you’d see a £115.10 profit, not bad but still very early days. Level stakes still leads the way but it’s a lot closer now.
This method of betting works well because you are playing the percentages and really analysing your thoughts and predictions about a match. For example, usually you would (well I wouldn’t) consider opposing Liverpool against Bolton or backing many draws even though upsets and draws frequently happen. Most, myself included won’t know exactly what % chance 1.78 equates to, so by examining exactly what % you think an outcome will have and the % that the odds suggest you can see if you really do believe a price has value and chose either a Kelly stake (if you’re confident your estimations are accurate) or a level stake, giving some acknowledgement in the accuracy of the Betfair odds. If you’ve not seen the sheet yet, you can download from here: http://www.betfairbanter.com/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx
Playing the percentages is very different in a Grand Slam tournament like the Australian open. Pre-tournament I tipped 2 shorter priced players (Nadal and Kvitova) and 2 outsiders albeit with winning potential (Tsonga and Kanepi). Both the outsiders are out and only Nadal and Kvitova remain. In actual fact, in both the Men’s and Women’s tournament the top 4 seeds all reached the Quarter Finals and in the Men’s Tournament it’s looking like all 4 in the semis!
This shows that you have to play the %s in a grand slam tournament differently to how you would wee-to-week in tennis. A grand slam is very much like the FA cup or the league positions. Football throws up some random results, just like week-to –week tennis but when it comes down to it you know which teams will be there. Class finds its way to the top on a longer term/format basis but one one-off event where motivation is in question, anything can happen. This is very important to consider in betting.
A quick note about the Betfair Banter forum. I have set this up again now (http://www.betfairbanter.com) and it’s staying around this time! It would be great to have some members on board and get some betting related discussion going. I like some of the content on the Betfair forum but not the format and I like to be able to subscribe to threads.
Finally, on a post by Cassini at GreenAllOver recently, he mentioned being selective is probably our biggest weapon against the bookmakers. I had a think about this and although I agree it is important not to bet where you don’t have knowledge about, if you do find 20 bets a day that you have enough of an opinion on versus the odds you should bet them all. Mathematically the more bets the better, even if your edge % goes down because of turnover.  After all, 1% profit on 1 million £1 bets gives us 10 times more profit than 10% profit on £10,000!

 

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