You may not be aware but tips from the new tipster profile H’Cap Service on the Tipster Table board come from the same person who provides the very successful Pinpoint tips. So, I thought I’d write a blog just to explain who I am, what the H’cap Service profile is and the difference between the Pinpoint profile and this new profile.
Firstly, just a little about my background as regards our business. Some of my first memories are watching the racing on a little black and white TV with my granddad, who was a racing fanatic. As was my mother, uncles and aunts, and it stayed with me all through my childhood (strange child). I was the school bookie if you wanted your sixpence on a nag in the National I was your man.
I started as a trainee accountant at 17, chucked it in a year later to start work at the local bookie’s as counter staff and did the board when racing started (I used to think I was an artist with my coloured chalk displays). Luckily the general manager noted my passion for the business and took me under his wing. I went to the London school of settling and was taught about collateral form reading. At the age of 20 I was pricing up the big Saturday handicaps for the whole firm, became manager of our biggest shop in London by 21 and was the area manager of a chain of 9 shops on the Kent coast at 23. I am the archetypical Gamekeeper turned Poacher.
I am a winner finder rather than a value seeker, (although I know when value is staring me in the face and I’m never afraid to take it when it appears). My local course is Lingfield and when the new AW surface arrived, I took to studying books on speed ratings (which the Americans were far ahead of us). Reading books by Beyer in an attempt to get an edge, I gained an understanding of the bounce and other new methods specific to the sand. After having some success, speed figures became my first starting point from then on.
I have half a dozen different methodologies which I use at different times of the year but the main ones are based around speed figures. Now I’m sure you all aware that if you were to just bet on the top speed figure in races you’ll soon end up in the poor house. There has to be sound filtering methods (i.e. going, course, mark, distance, trainer form, jockey, draw etc), coupled with a belief that you have an edge, to make sense of what can seem on the surface complete chaos.
I like to note all handicaps were the horse’s recent speed figures are high enough to suggest the horse could compete in the class above the one it is racing in. I like to have what I regard as 5lb above the class, (although translating speed figures to lb’s weight takes experience). I call this method “Speed/Class”.
Obviously, I’ve had success with this (Pinpoint is profitable), however speed figures work best when the going is good through to firm. That’s when they are at their most reliable (the algorithm has less impact on the rating when there is no cut in the ground). Hence most of Pinpoint’s profitability comes in the summer months. The AW is still a profit centre especially in the winter but is often bought down by my appalling record on the jumps which has been my downfall most winters (I came bottom in the Cheltenham competition). Some adjustments were needed.
I resolved to change things this winter and stick to the AW only until the flat started but needed more volume of bets to make it worthwhile. So, I developed a new methodology called “Progression and Speed”. Basically, I look for horses who have shown better form than normal or are in the best form of their life and have the potential to improve further. I gather this through different ways, (trainer quotes of their good winners, recovering from injury, change of riding tactics, recovered from operations, gelding, wind ops and other recoveries, studying RPR ratings to find progression). Most of all through my own eyes (I watch a lot of racing) and it has been very successful.
I had to get to grips with the jumps to improve my winter performance, and trialled another new method based on form from November 2017. By the start of February this year it had shown super profits, so I took the plunge and went live with it that month. Incorporating it with the new progression method on the AW, it worked a treat with the 6 months from November 17 to April 18 all being profitable for the first time. The jumps showed such consistency and I recorded a 22% ROI (unbelievable for me).
I decided to convert the Progression/Speed method on the Flat (turf) rather than use the Speed/Class method as its more consistent with cut in the going. Although I find May very difficult and a loss was recorded, -£56 is a lot better than-£341 the year before.
So, the Pinpoint profile stays with the Progression method from now on and will include summer jumping and the AW as a main stay as well as the Turf, as it made more profit in the first 6 months of this year than the whole of last and is more consistent. It has lower losing runs than any method I’ve used in the past.
However, the peak of summer has arrived and with the heat wave comes that lovely good to firm going that the original Speed /Class method does so well on. I’m not prepared to change what’s working for Pinpoint but at the same time want that profitability that I get this time of year from the Speed/Class method. So, with the big festivals upon us and the volume of bets steadily rising all the time, I needed another outlet to accommodate all the volume. Hence the H’cap Service, which is basically Pinpoint’s previous 2 years summer flat methods.
So, the last two Julys for Pinpoint were both in excess of £600 profit, and that is what the H’cap Service is catering for. Giving me the best of both worlds while the sun shines!
The H’cap Service is off to a great start with a 40/1, 25/1, and 17/1 winners among others and hopefully we will keep it going throughout the flat season and replicate Pinpoint’s usual summer trend. There are no guarantees and the losing runs might be longer but hopefully the bigger handicap winners it will produce will prove rewarding.
May I wish you all the best luck in your punting endeavours and “Keep the faith” in this great site, there is no better on the net.