Betting Advice and Analysis

How to win the Sky Sports Super 6

The Sky Sports Super 6 game is essentially the lottery for football fans. Each week you have to predict 6 correct scores usually from the Premier League or sometimes includes the Championship if there aren’t enough top flight matches at 3pm. Predict all 6 correct and you stand to win £250,000 or at least a share of it, if there are others who have also managed this feat. There haven’t been many £250,000 winners in the years of the competition running and it shows how unlikely winning the jackpot is. Unlike the lottery though, we can improve our chances with a little bit of research and knowhow.

There is also a £5,000 prize guaranteed to the person closest to landing the jackpot every week however and many people run their own leagues with prizes for the best totals over the course of a season.

I’ve just joined one fo these said leagues which includes my Dad and I’m keen to take his and his mates’ money as well as show them who’s boss! So I’ve run a few queries and done some reasearch to come up with 3 tips below for maximizing your chances in the Sky Super 6.

TIP 1: Don’t go for scorelines with a 3 in them or higher

Only 8 scorelines occur more than 5% of the time and they are the ones in the table below. From the data for the last 5 Premier League seasons there are no scores higher than 2 I these most common scorelines and your chances of predicted the scoreline of a game containing a team that scored 3 or more as well as the correct amount of goals for the opposition are extremely slim.

Scoreline Percentage
1-0 10.63%
1-1 9.95%
2-0 8.42%
0-0 7.84%
0-1 7.68%
2-1 7.47%
1-2 6.47%
2-2 5.47%

 

In my research of previous winners the first 2 (1 jackpot and 1 shared) that I came across both won with scorelines containing 2 goals per team or fewer. Here are the links (winning scores at the bottom):

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/lucky-pensioner-wins-super-6-8959190

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/14031300.Poole-based_soccer_fan_wins_Super_6_with_against-the-odds_predictions/

 

TIP 2: Use the betting odds to guide you

The bookies aren’t daft and in the long-term their odds are extremely accurate. You could just look at their correct scoreline odds and go with that but that might include some bias towards the higher scores with punters perhaps wanting to go for high scorelines when one of the big 6 teams are involved. The bookies may feel it necessary to make some of these shorter than they should be.

What I have preferred to do instead is put the odds of the home team in ranges and see which results are most common based on the home odds. I’ve included the top 3 for each range in case there is little between some of the top few score and to allow a little flexibility in terms of thinking. Again this is from the last 5 Premier League seasons.

 

Home Odds Most Common Scoreline 2nd Most common 3rd Most Common
1.01 – 1.49 2-0 2-1 1-0
1.5 -1.99 1-0 2-0 1-1
2.00 – 2.49 1-0 1-1 0-0
2.50 – 2.99 1-1 0-0 1-0
3.00 – 3.49 0-1 1-1 1-2
3.5 – 3.99 1-2 0-3 2-1
4.0 – 4.49 1-1 0-1 0-0
4.5 – 4.99 0-1 1-1 1-2
5.00+ 0-2 0-1 1-2

 

TIP 3: Choose a number lower than 10 for golden goal

The golden goal is the time of the first goal from all 6 matches. The stats are from a few years back but are unlikely to vary too much and  in 2012-13 thirty-three point nine (33.9%) of first goals came before the 15th minute. So the first goal from the chosen 6 matches is likely to be earlier than this. I’d go for below 10 myself. Last week I went for 4 and was out by just one minute (5).

Good luck with your Super 6 endeavours and if you do win courtesy of this advice, feel free to send me a few quid 🙂

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